Current overview of the grain market

In the period from October 27, 2023 to November 3, 2023, wheat prices on the world market behaved differently. Chicago soft red winter wheat (CBOT, ZW) fell to 572.50 cents per bushel (-0.52%), while Kansas hard red winter wheat (CBOT, KE) rose to was 643.50 cents per bushel (0.08%). The price of hard red spring wheat on the Minneapolis exchange (MGE, MWE) also increased to 721.00 cents per bushel (0.17%).

On the Chicago Exchange (CBOT, ZC), the corn contract fell to 477.25 cents per bushel (-0.73%), while the price of rice (CBOT, ZR) remained unchanged at $16.22 per pound ( 0.00%).

During the reporting week, indicative prices in Russia (FOB World Cup) for wheat decreased to $251.90 per ton (-0.20%), for barley - to $166.10 per ton (-0.12%), and for corn - to $188 .40 per ton (-1.77%). The Russian wheat index, the northern port of Novorossiysk (CPT), fell to 14,515 rubles per ton (-0.07%).

Within Russia, purchase prices for grade 4 wheat with 12.5% protein at port elevators in the Black and Azov Seas were:

- Azov: 12100 (+200) rubles per ton
- Rostov-on-Don: 12100 (+200) rubles per ton
- Taganrog: 11,700 (+100) rubles per ton

By October 30, 2023, 140.2 million tons of grain were harvested in Russia. This is 9.8 million tons less than the same date last year. Including, 93.7 million tons of wheat were threshed, compared to 104.6 million tons a year earlier.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation proposes to introduce a ban on the export of durum wheat from Russia from December 1, 2023 to May 31, 2024. At the same time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko stated that the authorities do not plan to introduce new restrictions on food exports from the country.

As part of additional interventions, the State Fund will purchase wheat (3rd and 4th classes) and rye (not lower than 3rd class) for the 2022 and 2023 harvests. The total volume of planned purchases is up to 2 million tons of grain. Bidding will begin by the end of November.

From November 1, 2023, a mechanism for payments for agricultural products in national currencies was introduced. The approved list includes, but is not limited to, barley, corn, wheat and meslin, as well as soybeans.

Analysts continue to raise forecasts for corn harvest in 2023. This week, the Rusagrotrans agency increased its crop harvest estimate by 1.6 million tons, to 17.6 million tons. Earlier, Ikar and the analytical company Prozerno raised the forecast for the gross corn harvest to 17 million tons. The Russian Grain Union notes an increase in corn exports from Russia by almost 4 times compared to the previous season. Reports from the Prozerno company show that corn prices accelerated their decline last week due to a high harvest.

From November 9, 2023, customs duties on wheat and corn will continue to decline, and on barley they will remain zero.

Belarus harvested more than 9.2 million tons of grain, including rapeseed. Ukraine harvested more than 47 million tons of grain crops, including 22.4 million tons of wheat.

Kazakhstan has officially allowed transit transportation of wheat by rail from November 3, 2023.

The Ukrainian Grain Association increased its forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in 2023 to 81.6 million tons. This is due to an increase in the expected harvest of corn and sunflower. Exports this season could reach about 50 million tons.