Stern, Winter crops - Incubator

Grain trading on Russian exchanges on November 20, 2024: 14 contracts for the purchase of wheat were concluded, with a total sales volume of 4150 tons and an average price of 17798 ₽ per ton.

In the Rostov region, winter wheat is falling behind due to rains. Monitoring the condition of plants, diseases, and pests. So far, the situation with mice and cereal leaf beetles is under control. The harvest depends on the weather, specialists are conducting monitoring.

A meeting between the UN and Russia on grain and fertilizer supplies may take place in February. The conditions of the memorandum on unlocking exports and other measures have not been met. Talks with the UN team on access to agricultural markets are ongoing.

The "grain deal" has been terminated, as Russia declined to extend its validity.

It is projected that grain harvest in Russia will exceed 139.5 million tons by 2025, with a yield reaching 29 quintals per hectare. The implementation of modern technologies and government support contribute to increasing crop yields without expanding farmland.

Iran has purchased 240,000 tons of wheat from Russia through GTC. Prices ranged from 292 euros to 314 dollars per ton on CIF delivery terms to Iranian ports.

Another two batches of 60,000 tons were bought at 323 euros or 347.35 dollars per ton.

In the Russian grain exchanges on November 18, 2024, 13 wheat contracts were sold, with a total volume of 3850 tons. The average price per ton was 17889 rubles (178.9 dollars). Prices at auctions ranged from 17000 to 18400 rubles per ton.

Rosstat reported that as of November 1, Russia has harvested 124.3 million tons of grain, which is 16.7 million tons less than last year. The grain harvest area has remained almost the same: harvested from 94.7% compared to 94.3% last year.

In addition to grain, other crops have also been harvested: sunflower, sugar beets, potatoes, and vegetables.

In the north of Siberia, the Far East, and the Urals, cold weather down to minus 30 degrees is expected, while in the south of Western Siberia there will be high temperatures. It will be especially cold in Taymyr and Chukotka. In other regions, temperatures will return to around zero.

Grain prices on November 14, 2024: corn -7.50 ¢/bsh ($4.19), soft wheat -10.75 ¢/bsh ($5.30), hard red wheat HRW -7.75 ¢/bsh ($5.33), hard red spring wheat HRS -4.50 ¢/bsh ($5.66), oats +6.50 ¢/bsh ($3.48), rough rice -0.26 usd/cwt ($14.68).

The company "SovEcon" has increased the forecast for wheat harvest in Russia in 2025 by 1.5 million tonnes to 81.6 million tonnes due to the expansion of sown areas and the yield of winter wheat. The forecast for corn harvest has decreased to 11.5 million tonnes, with the overall grain forecast at 122.3 million tonnes.

International wheat prices continued to rise. Prices for soft and hard winter wheat on the CBOT rose, while rice prices fell. In Russia, prices for wheat and barley declined, while corn prices rose. 78% of grains have been harvested, with a total of 105.9 million tons collected. Grain harvest forecasts in Russia are decreasing.

Quotations for wheat at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have fallen to $5.52/bushel due to wet weather in the USA and the strengthening of the dollar.

Precipitation in Kansas has offset the moisture deficit. The export of Russian wheat also affects prices. Rumors about negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may influence the market.