News company - Wheat Demand and Supply Dynamics: Trend Analysis - Incubator

Starting from July 2, the tariff for exporting wheat from Russia will decrease to 56.3 rubles per ton, which is 4.4 times lower than last week. Tariffs for barley will remain unchanged, while those for corn will increase. The calculations are based on contract prices and will come into effect on July 8.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation has estimated that this year the area of insured crops is 2 million hectares. Applications for compensation for losses are already being accepted, with the total amount reaching 200 million rubles.

The insured area of perennial crops has increased. There is a growing interest among agricultural producers in state insurance due to attractive conditions.

In the Kaluga region, 9.3 thousand hectares were sown with rapeseed for the harvest of 2025, increasing the area by 63%. Growing rapeseed is considered promising and is used in the food industry, animal husbandry, as fuel, in medicine, and cosmetology.

Altyn Shyghys plant from Kazakhstan will send sunflower oil to China for Sinograin. The production corporation consolidates export batches, helping farmers enter global markets. Within the project, contracts worth $20 million have already been signed. Cooperation with CITIC Construction is the result of meetings in Astana and Beijing, contributing to exports.

Weather forecast in the USA until July 2: warm, high humidity in the corn belt. The influence on corn and soybean crops due to high humidity, market deterioration due to contradictions. Improvement of weather is expected in the plains of winter wheat.

Production of Brazilian soybeans is growing, the USA expects a crop of 118.84 million tons. Argentina plans to introduce 49 million tons to the market.

The sunflower crop in Russia by June 20, 2025 covers 11.4 million hectares, which is 941 thousand hectares more than last year. The largest increase in sowing areas was recorded in the Siberian Federal District (+119%), with 4.95 million hectares planted in the Volga Federal District. Half of the federal districts have exceeded the planned targets. The projected harvest for the new season is 17.3 million tonnes.

The Russian government has extended the temporary ban on the export of live rice until the end of 2025 due to production problems following the accident at the hydropower plant. Exceptions to the ban include supplies to the Eurasian Economic Union and humanitarian aid.

A tariff quota has been introduced for the export of processed rice and cereals.

In Tunisia, the harvest is successfully coming to an end. A total of 134,208 tons of grain have been collected, including 133,735 tons for consumption and 473,600 tons for seeds.

The wheat harvest is planned to be 1,350,000 tons and barley - 550,000 tons. Tunisia remains a major consumer of Russian wheat.

The center of Rosselkhozbank has completed the Forum on the development of linseed production in Russia. The planting area will increase by 5%, reaching 1.753 million hectares, with a yield of up to 1.42 million tons.

This year, the export of linseeds has decreased by 15%, with China and Belgium leading in purchases.

Land areas under oilseed crops in Russia have reached a historical maximum of 20 million hectares, with a harvest of 31-32 million tons. Producers are switching to sunflower, rapeseed, beans, reducing wheat and rye cultivation. It is expected that processing of oil crops and meal will increase.

Export of meal decreased by 10%, rapeseed meal increased, while soybean meal decreased.

ICAS is preparing to adjust the crop forecast in the Rostov region and Krasnodar region due to soil moisture disruption. However, the harvest in other regions may increase. In Kuban, 13.8 million tons of grain were harvested, in the Rostov region - 11.6 million tons. According to ICAS forecast, by 2025, Russia is expected to produce 130-131 million tons of grain. New data will be presented next week after field inspection.

In 2024, 125.85 million tons of grain were harvested, including 82.5 million tons of wheat.

The export of vegetable oils decreased by 22% during the first 5 months of 2025. The export of sunflower seeds, soybeans, rapeseed, and flax decreased. Prices for the products are declining due to abundant reserves and negative producer margins.