The yield of agricultural products in Russia is expected to decrease this year, but to grow by 2027.

According to the main forecast model for socio-economic development until 2027, developed by the Ministry of Economic Development and presented to the State Duma along with the draft federal budget for the next three years, a 3% decrease in agricultural production is expected this year compared to 2023. In April, the department predicted a decrease of 1.9%. The new conservative scenario assumes a worsening situation to 3%, compared to 2.1% in April.

According to the new forecast based on this model, agricultural production is expected to increase by 4.4% in 2025, by 1.6% in 2026, and by 1.4% in 2027. The previous model assumed a production increase of 4% in 2025 and 1.7% in the following two years. The updated conservative forecast predicts a decrease in agricultural production by 0.8% in 2025, an increase of 1.1% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development forecast, a decrease in crop yields is expected this year due to unfavorable weather conditions and the high base of 2023. For instance, a harvest of 132 million tons of grains and legumes, 13.7 million tons of vegetables, approximately 16.7 million tons of sunflower seeds, and 45.5 million tons of sugar beets is expected. By 2027, an increase in grain and legume harvest to 148 million tons and sunflower seeds to 17.5 million tons is expected.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the development of animal husbandry in the medium term will be influenced by technological modernization, increased production efficiency, cost reduction, logistics development, and entry into new export markets. According to the department's forecast, in 2027, the production of livestock products for slaughter will amount to 17.9 million tons live weight, which is 8.1% more than in 2023. It is expected that milk production will increase by 7.7% to 36.4 million tons.

The Ministry of Economic Development also notes that the growth in agricultural production, industry plans to increase production and exports, as well as the rise in people's incomes, contribute to further growth in food production. According to the department's forecast, the food industry is expected to increase by 9.1% by 2027 compared to 2023.

To achieve the projected volumes of agricultural and food production, maintaining favorable conditions for investment attraction remains a crucial requirement, emphasizes the Ministry of Economic Development. Also, with the increase in production volumes, a key task is to find new sales markets, considering the saturation of the domestic market with most types of products. "This is why state support is aimed at expanding access of Russian products to foreign markets, including Southeast Asia, South Asia, China, as well as markets in the Middle East and Africa," the Ministry of Economic Development's forecast states. "Key exported products include grain products, oil and fat products, as well as fish and seafood."

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