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The oilseed harvest this year may reach 27.5 million tons against almost 29.1 million tons in 2022. This forecast was voiced by the Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko at the conference "Where is the margin". At the end of June, he estimated the potential for gross harvest at 28 million tons. At the same time, oilseeds processing capacity is about 31 million tons, but due to high carryover stocks (2-2.5 million tons), their needs will be met. So, according to Rylko, processors will be in a comfortable zone, if weather factors do not affect the remaining months of the growing season and harvesting oilseeds. “It should also be taken into account that in the 2022/23 season, sunflower and flax harvesting continued until spring inclusive, which affected the quantity and quality of the crop. Let's hope this doesn't happen this season," Rylko added.
Gross yields of oilseeds will decrease as a result of the first reduction in crops in a long time to 17.6-18 million hectares, Rylko explained. Last year, oilseeds occupied 18.6 million hectares. Including, the areas under sunflower, according to the ICAR, this year could decrease from more than 10 million hectares to 9.6-9.8 million hectares, under rapeseed - from 2.34 million hectares to 2.25 million hectares, under oil flax - from almost 2.1 million hectares to 1.55-1.6 million hectares. At the same time, soybean occupied 3.55 million hectares against 3.47 million hectares last year.
Sunflower harvest this year IKAR predicts at the level of 15.7 million tons (about 16.4 million tons last year), stocks at the end of the 2022/23 season - 1.5 million tons. The volume of processing in the new season may exceed 16 .1 million tons. “Internal processing can receive record volumes of sunflower,” Rylko emphasized. In general, the balance of the sunflower market in the new season is estimated by IKAR as comfortable for the industry, as a result of which the stocks may be reduced to 400 thousand tons.
Sunflower oil production in the current season is estimated at 6.4 million tons, in the new season it may approach 7 million tons. Exports from Russia in the 2022/23 season may reach a record 4 million tons, in 2023/24 - increase to 4 .7 million tons, predicts IKAR. At the same time, Rylko drew attention to a rather serious discount on sunflower oil compared to soybean and palm oil. Nevertheless, the crash margin of sunflower seed processors, according to the IKAR presentation, exceeded 20% by the beginning of July, the processing profitability approached 15%. “In the first half of the season, the margin was close to a record, then it gradually decreased, but still, from our point of view, processors feel quite comfortable. In recent weeks, the cost of butter has begun to rise, plus the depreciation of the ruble has affected, so prices have resumed rising in the domestic market,” Rylko said.
The gross harvest of soybeans this year, according to the IKAR forecast, may amount to about 5.9 million tons (about 6 million tons in 2022), while its total supply, thanks to carry-over stocks, is estimated by IKAR at more than 8 million tons. the new season can reach 6.1 million tons. The forecast for soybean exports in the 2023/24 season is 1.2 million tons, follows from the presentation. At the end of the new season, stocks will drop to a comfortable 210 thousand tons.
The rapeseed harvest this year is projected at 4.17 million tons against 4.5 million tons in 2022. Earlier, IKAR estimated the potential for gross agricultural production at 4.2-4.4 million tons, while, as follows from the presentation, a further decline in the forecast is not ruled out: a reduction in crops, as well as heat in the Urals and Siberia, is affecting. Despite the expected decrease in the harvest of rapeseed, its processing in the 2023/24 season may turn out to be almost 100 thousand tons more than in 2022/23 and amount to about 3.4 million tons.
