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Speculation on the grain market in Ukraine: prices for wheat and corn in times of crisis and rising freight
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Speculation on the grain market in Ukraine: prices for wheat and corn in times of crisis and rising freight

Traders are actively taking advantage of the crisis in the Red Sea and rising freight rates to speculate on the grain market in Ukraine. However, there is currently no clear factor causing a decrease in prices. Wheat exports already amount to 1 million tons, with 1.5 million tons contracted for January and 1.3-1.4 million tons for February. Prices on import markets are mostly stable, except for Turkey, which is trying to purchase grain at a lower price. The situation is similar in the corn market. Prices at ports are at $180-185 per ton on the Danube, $184-189 per ton in Odessa, and $220-225 per ton at the border with Romania.

24 January 2024 24 January 2024

Currently, traders are actively trying to use the crisis in the Red Sea, rising freight rates and other global problems for speculation in the grain market in Ukraine. Their goal is to prove that prices for wheat and corn should be lower than they are now.

Since the beginning of January, Ukraine has already exported more than 1 million tons of wheat. The total volume of contracted grain for January is 1.5 million tons, and 1.3-1.4 million tons of wheat have already been contracted for February. There are also small sales for March. At the same time, wheat reserves are at a fairly high level.

Prices on the importers' market remained virtually unchanged. The only buyer who is trying to purchase grain at a lower price is Turkey. Spain and Italy reduced prices by only $2. However, there has been no significant decline in prices in export markets. Traders are also trying to spread information about a possible market collapse due to problems in the Red Sea and rising freight costs. They are especially actively trying to purchase cheap feed wheat. However, there is no clear factor yet that would cause prices to decline.

It was also noted that in the ports of the Danube the price of wheat is currently 180-185 dollars per ton (with an increase forecast in February), in the ports of Odessa - 184-189 dollars per ton, and on the border with Romania - 220-225 dollars per ton.

A similar situation has developed in the corn market. 3.2 million tons of grain have already been contracted for January, 2.8 million tons for February, and 1 million tons for March.

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