Forecast: The grain harvest in Russia in 2025 may increase by 7% to 139.5 million tons, causing disagreements among experts.

Analysts from Rosselkhozbank predict that in 2025, grain harvest in Russia may exceed 139.5 million tons, becoming one of the largest in the country's history. However, other experts do not share such optimism.

According to Rosselkhozbank's forecasts, in 2025, 48.1 million hectares will be allocated for grain crops (compared to 47.9 million hectares this year), with a yield of 29 hundredweights per hectare. Thus, the total grain harvest could reach 139.5 million tons.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture's estimates, it is possible to harvest 130 million tons of grain this year. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev announced that 130 million tons have already been harvested in bunker weight. Therefore, if the forecast for 2025 comes true, it will signify a 7% growth compared to last year, joining the ranks of historic years for Russia alongside 2022 (157.6 million tons) and 2023 (144.9 million tons).

This result was achieved thanks to the implementation of modern agricultural technologies, such as field monitoring, precision farming, minimum soil tillage, and land reclamation. These methods allow for efficient resource utilization and minimization of losses. Breeders are creating more resilient and high-yielding varieties adapted to the Russian climate. Good results are also attributed to government support, investments in infrastructure, and the enhancement of farmers' qualifications, according to Mikhail Vasiliev, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Rosselkhozbank.

Over the past few years, grain yield has increased by 56% to 31.1 hundredweights per hectare, while maintaining the same sowing area of about 46-48 thousand hectares.

In 2025, grain harvest may grow by 7% compared to 2024 and reach 139.5 million tons.

According to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), the grain harvest in 2025 may reach around 128 million tons, including 84 million tons of wheat. However, this is just a very preliminary forecast, notes IKAR's Director Dmitry Rylko.

It is important to note that winter wheat accounts for about 68% of the total wheat harvest.

Rylko points out that compared to last year, there is a decrease in the areas sown with winter wheat across all of Russia (excluding new territories) by about 600 thousand hectares.

IKAR also expresses concerns about potential issues with winter wheat sowings in some regions, particularly in the central part of the country. The reduction in areas sown with winter crops will be partially compensated by an increase in spring wheat sowings. The freed-up areas will be used for sowing other crops, such as sunflowers, spring barley, maize, soybeans, and legumes.

Similar problems with winter wheat sowings are also observed in the Russian Grain Union.

The area sown with winter wheat for the 2025 harvest is expected to decrease by 0.9 million hectares compared to the same period in 2023, down to 16.3 million hectares, and after winter – down to 15.4 million hectares, which will be the lowest figure since the 2018/2019 season, as estimated by Igor Pavensky, head of the analytical center "Rusagrotrans." His forecast is that the grain harvest in Russia in 2025 will amount to 133 million tons, including 84.5 million tons of wheat.

Last week, the government recommended to executive authorities to maintain sown areas under agricultural crops in 2025 at least at the level of 2024.