Decline in wheat exports from Russia in November

In the first half of November, Russia exported about 1.8 million tons of wheat, which is 25% less than in the same period last month. The forecast for wheat exports in November, including the EAEU countries, has been reduced from 4.65 million to 4.35 million tons, reports the analytical center of Rusagrotrans JSC.

Wheat exports in November last year amounted to 4.74 million tons, and in October this year - almost 5.1 million tons.

Thus, for the first time since the beginning of the season, export rates are significantly lower than last year. The center's explanations state that weather conditions in ports, heavy rains, as well as the reluctance of Russian exporters to sell wheat at the proposed dumping prices are holding back shipments.

The center also reports that Russian wheat prices have risen from $226 to $230 per ton (FOB) over the past week, but remain well below French and American wheat prices, which exceed $250 per ton (FOB).

Analysts also note that global stock prices are falling despite information about problems with winter wheat crops in France, where, due to heavy rains, only 71% of fields were sown, while usually by this time sowing has already been completed. This will likely result in a significant reduction of 3-4 million tonnes in the 2024 harvest from the current 35.1 million tonnes.

In addition, the Argentine grain exchange Bolsa de Cereales lowered its forecast for the wheat harvest in Argentina from 15.4 million to 14.7 million tons, as frost in October canceled the positive effect of recent rains.

Analysts also note that changes are taking place in the Russian wheat market: demand is growing, and producers are holding back sales. Prices for 4th class wheat (protein 12.5%, EXW elevator) in the central part of Russia increased to 9,800-10,700 rubles per ton (by 300 rubles), and in the south - to 11,800-12,500 rubles (by 100 rubles). In the Volga region, prices remained at 10,000-11,000 rubles per ton.