The most interesting begins after the end of the grain deal

Since July 18, the grain deal has ceased to operate. Russia's demands under the agreement were never fulfilled. And the deal, rather, threatened our security. As a result, we made the only correct decision - we refused to cooperate on the Black Sea initiative. But…

Kyiv hopes to continue shipping cargo on its own. And this option is quite realistic. But here the most interesting begins.

     The main question is what will we do when dry cargo ships start to leave the ports of Ukraine without any agreement with us. And they will go along the routes along the coast of Romania and Bulgaria, - explains the military commander Alexander Kots. - And they will start to leave, I have no doubt. Kyiv will do everything to provoke our attacks on civilian courts.

The most logical solution to this puzzle would be the destruction of the port infrastructure that worked for the Black Sea initiative. Here, of course, we are not implying anything. But over the course of several nights, the Russian Armed Forces attacked the ports in Odessa and Nikolaev. Other than that, we'll keep watching.

By the way, about safety. It was through the Black Sea corridor that Ukraine could receive weapons for strikes against peaceful territories. And do we need it? Of course not.
Türkiye will not risk its fleet over Ukraine

Kyiv really hoped to get Turkey's support for military escort of ships leaving Ukrainian ports. However, the grain deal has been completed, and Ankara will not risk its fleet, according to Bloomberg authors.

     I don’t think that ship owners will send them to Ukrainian ports until the corridors are restored, this is not safe,

- said the representative of the association of owners of bulk carriers Intercargo Paul Markides.

Earlier it was reported that Turkey did not like the Ukrainian proposal to create a "grain deal - 2" without Russia's participation. Ankara is interested in renewing the previous agreement.
Chance to reopen...

On July 19, a message appeared about the official speech of the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova.

     The UN has three more months to implement (the agreements with Russia on the export of grain and fertilizers. - Ed.), to achieve concrete results,

- she said.

Why three months? What should happen during this time? The fact is that, according to the official statement of the UN Secretary General António Guterres, he planned to restore the Rosselkhozbank's access to the SWIFT system in 90 days.

The Russian Foreign Ministry says that Moscow will no longer trust the statements of Western countries and the UN. Return to the "Black Sea Grain Initiative" is possible only on the basis of specific results, that is, after the fulfillment of all promises. The Foreign Ministry's statements are consistent with what President Vladimir Putin said a few days before the suspension of Russia's participation in the deal. In an interview with journalists Pavel Zarubin, he said:

     We will extend. Exactly at the moment when the promises given to us will be fulfilled.

That is, the door to the deal, in general, is not closed. If the partners do what they promised, Russia will allow dry cargo ships to enter Odessa and leave from there with grain and sunflower seeds. To the delight of the European Union. And if not, then we can expect a very serious increase in grain prices around the world.
What should Russia do?

Political scientist Andrei Perla answered this question:

“Breaking the grain deal is much more beneficial for Russia than continuing it. Yes, in retaliation he will do everything to hinder the export of our grain and fertilizers. But with these actions, he will increasingly raise prices on the world market - just for grain and fertilizers. Yes, this will mean the threat of starvation in some of the poorest countries. And the need to supply them with grain for humanitarian reasons. But it will also mean a heavy blow to the economy of the European Union itself.

Europe already lacks about 30% of fertilizers. As for grain prices, it is not at all excluded that in 2024, in the conditional 6th arondissement of Paris, a conditional croissant familiar to the French will cost 10 euros (now only 3). Which, of course, will make it somewhat more difficult to send the next financial assistance packages to the government of Ukraine and produce another portion of ammunition for Ukraine."