"Rusagrotrans" fixes a further increase in prices for wheat from the Russian Federation in ports and for export

The upper export limit in August has been adjusted by 100,000 tons.

Export demand prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for delivery in August-September rose to $248 per ton FOB, which is $5 per ton higher than a week earlier for delivery in October, according to the materials of the analytical center Rusagrotrans, available at the disposal of the magazine pole.rf.

     “The forecast for wheat exports in August 2023, taking into account the EAEU, is about 4.7-4.8 million tons, which corresponds to the average annual level over the past 5 years,” analysts say.

Previously, the export was estimated at 4.7-4.9 million tons.
 
Export prices

The price of American wheat fell to $248 per ton (-$1), French - to $266 per ton (+$12).

     Egypt (GASC) again bought a small amount of wheat - only 235 thousand tons of Russian origin, including 175 thousand tons - for delivery September 15-30 at $262 per ton FOB ($276.50-279.69 per ton CNF) and 60 thousand tons at $265 per ton FOB ($279.5 per ton CNF) for delivery October 1-15. The price has increased compared to the previous tender due to the change in payment terms.
     Straregie Grains once again lowered the forecast for the production of soft wheat in the EU. This time - to a level lower than last year: from 126.2 million tons to 124.7 million (2022 - 125.3 million tons). The reason was heavy rains in the Nordic countries, which reduce the yield and quality of grain.
     In addition, the gross harvest of corn was reduced against the background of the drought that continued in July in the countries of Southern Europe - by 2.1 million tons, to 58.7 million tons (up from 52.2 million tons last year). Barley production is projected at 47.2 million tons, more than 4 million tons lower than last year.
     India may reduce the import duty on wheat from 40% to 15-20% or zero by September. The price of wheat on the domestic market reached, according to local media, $320 per ton. The government also plans to sell 5 million tons of wheat to processing companies.
     Jordan has announced a tender for the purchase of 120 thousand tons of wheat (August 15) and 120 thousand tons of barley (August 16) for delivery from January 16 to February 29, 2024.
     Syria announced a tender (August 23) for the purchase of 200 thousand tons of wheat.
     In the US, as of August 6, the share of spring wheat in good/excellent fell to 41%, while the market expected the previous week's level of 42% to remain (64% last year). Harvesting of winter wheat is 87% completed (85% last year), spring wheat - 11% (8% last year).

The exchange situation with barley has not yet affected its cost in ports. Quotes of Russian barley for August-September rose to $190 per ton (+$4). Purchasing prices based on CPT Novorossiysk remained at the level of 14,000–14,200 rubles per ton.
 
Prices in ports and within Russia

Further strengthening of prices in ports is noted by Rusagrotrans analysts: the cost of high water increased by almost 11% year-on-year.

     “Prices for wheat (4th grade, 12.5% protein) in deep-water ports rose to 16,700–16,800 rubles per ton without VAT (+300 rubles compared to the previous week),” materialaz says.

At the same time, prices at low water decreased to 14,500–14,700 rubles per ton (–150 rubles) against the background of current restrictions on the passage under the Crimean bridge. Last year prices were 14,850 rubles per ton in deep water and 13,750 rubles in shallow water.

According to analysts, the domestic wheat market weakened in the South due to rising prices for delivery by road. Prices for 4th grade wheat (12.5% protein, EXW elevator):

     In the South - decreased to 14,000-14,300 rubles per ton (-350 rubles)
     In the Center, they remained at the levels of 11,000–11,500 rubles per ton
     11,000–11,800 rubles per ton remained in the Volga region
     In Siberia, 11,000–12,500 rubles per ton remained.

Rains in the southwest of the Central Federal District will slow down wheat harvesting and affect quality, but at the same time will improve conditions for the growth of corn and soybeans, the Rusagrotrans analytical center believes. Dry weather in the east of the Center and in the Volga region will speed up harvesting, but worsen conditions for corn in regions with low moisture reserves. Rains will replenish moisture reserves in Siberia and the Urals, but will not significantly increase the potential for grain yields.