The rise in prices for grain and oilseeds: weather and exports influence global markets.

Climatic conditions can seriously affect wheat prices on the global market. It is expected that grain-producing regions of the Russian Federation and neighboring countries will face intensified drought conditions. It is likely that barley exports in April will reach record levels, so a decrease in prices is not expected. At the same time, the price of sunflower continues to rise due to depletion of reserves and high demand from producers. While the soy situation is stable, there are sell-offs in the soybean meal market before the European Union makes a decision on imposing import duties.

Wheat

On the global wheat market, prices are rising for several reasons. Weather forecasts indicate the likelihood of transitioning to the La Niña climate phenomenon in May-June of this year. This could lead to drought conditions in grain-producing regions of Russia and neighboring countries. Additionally, wheat prices will decrease due to Egypt purchasing 120,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat to be delivered in May at a price of $220 per ton FOB. High export rates from Ukraine also contribute to price decreases.

The Russian wheat market is also subject to fluctuations. Intensified drought conditions in southern regions of Russia, as well as advanced sowing rates in the country's regions, are leading to price increases. However, overall wheat prices remain stable until the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases forecasts for the 24/25 season on May 10. If the grain harvest in Russia turns out to be moderate, global markets react with growth.

Barley

On the global barley market, prices are rising due to low prices and interest from importers such as China and North African countries. However, demand for barley in Saudi Arabia is declining due to the replacement of domestically produced feed mixtures based on corn. Additionally, high barley stocks in Europe and reduced shipments to the markets of Saudi Arabia and China are also leading to price decreases.

In the Russian barley market, prices are rising due to high export shipments in April, which may exceed the monthly record of recent years. However, advanced sowing rates in Russian regions are causing price decreases. Overall, barley prices in Russian ports remain stable, and no price decreases are expected until the end of the season due to sufficient reserves.

Corn

On the global corn market, prices remain stable. However, growing concerns about crop losses in Argentina and Brazil could lead to reduced supply. Additionally, reduced corn imports by China and falling palm oil prices are putting pressure on the corn market.

In the Russian corn market, prices are rising due to a shortage of raw materials and high demand from large processors. However, reduced export shipments and demand, especially from Iran, are leading to price decreases. Overall, the cost of corn on the export basis remains at the same level, but domestic demand supports a potential price increase.

Sunflower

On the global sunflower market, prices are rising due to demand from China and India for sunflower oil. Additionally, reduced exports from Argentina and an increase in duties contribute to price growth. However, pressure from adjacent markets and falling oil prices may have a negative impact.

In the Russian sunflower market, prices are rising due to high demand for exports and a shortage of raw materials in some regions. However, sufficient reserves in other regions are hindering price increases. Overall, sunflower prices in Russia are gradually increasing, supported by stable export rates and a positive trend in the ruble exchange rate.

Soybeans

On the global soybean market, prices remain stable. Weakened demand for palm oil and a possible reduction in the biodiesel program in the U.S. could put pressure on soybean oil prices. Additionally, falling oil prices also have a negative impact.

In the Russian soybean market, prices remain stable. The increase in soybean meal supply on the domestic market due to expectations of duties imposed by the European Union may put pressure on prices. Overall, soybean prices are not expected to rise.