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The United States Department of Agriculture in its latest report kept the previous forecast for wheat production in Russia for the current agricultural year (July 2024-June 2025) at 83 million tonnes, as well as estimated carryover stocks at 6.74 million tonnes.
Forecasts for wheat exports from Russia remained unchanged at 48 million tonnes.
However, the forecast for corn production was reduced to 13.5 million tonnes (compared to the previous report of 14.1 million tonnes). Corn exports were also revised to 3.8 million tonnes, with carryover stocks at 0.31 million tonnes.
Grain feed production was reduced from 37.4 million to 36.8 million tonnes, with exports estimated at 8.1 million tonnes (compared to the previous 8.48 million tonnes), and carryover stocks at 1.06 million tonnes.
Wheat export forecasts for Russia's main competitor, the European Union, decreased by 2.5 million tonnes and are now estimated at 31.5 million tonnes. Wheat production forecasts in the EU were also reduced by 4 million tonnes, with an expected harvest of 124 million tonnes.
Ukraine, on the other hand, increased its wheat export forecasts from 14 to 15 million tonnes. The wheat harvest forecast also grew to 22.3 million tonnes, with carryover stocks at 1.09 million tonnes. Corn harvest and export forecasts remained unchanged at 27.2 million tonnes and 24 million tonnes, respectively.
Wheat harvesting forecasts in Kazakhstan remained unchanged at 16 million tonnes. Exports also remained at the same level – 10.5 million tonnes. Carryover stocks are estimated at 2.83 million tonnes.
The global wheat harvest forecast for the current agricultural year was reduced to 796.88 million tonnes (by 1.4 million tonnes), while the forage crop was reduced to 1 billion 502.45 million tonnes (compared to 1 billion 504.29 million tonnes in the previous report), with corn production and export forecasts at 1 billion 218.57 million tonnes, respectively.
It is important to note that the USDA does not include data on Crimea and new territories in its forecasts.
