World wheat prices are falling, Russian indicative prices are rising, and the volume of grain transportation by rail is increasing.
World wheat prices have fallen: soft and hard red winter wheat dropped on various exchanges. Russian wheat prices have risen, and railways transported a record volume of grain in 2023. Winter conditions are favorable for winter crops, and rye prices have started to rise. Russia has increased its share of wheat in GASC tenders.
26 February 2024
Last week, from 12.01.24 to 19.01.24, world wheat prices declined. Prices for the following types of wheat also fell:
- Soft red winter wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZW) decreased to 593.25 cents/bushel (-0.46%);
- Hard red winter wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT, KE) dropped to 608.00 cents/bushel (-1.18%);
- Hard red spring wheat on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE, MWE) fell to 695.50 cents/bushel (-0.57%).
The contract for corn on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZC) decreased to 445.50 cents/bushel (-0.34%). The price of rice in Chicago (CBOT, ZR) remained unchanged at $17.24/cwt (+0.00%).
Russian indicative prices (FOB Black Sea):
- Wheat increased to $251.30/ton (+0.20%);
- Barley increased to $189.50/ton (+9.54%);
- Corn rose to $194.20/ton (+1.68%).
The Russian wheat index, CPT Novorossiysk, rose to 14233 rubles/ton (+0.13%).
Domestic purchase prices for 4th class wheat with a protein content of 12.5%, at port elevators of the Black and Azov Seas for the reporting period:
- Azov - 12400 (0) rubles/ton;
- Novorossiysk - 14100 (0) rubles/ton;
- Rostov-on-Don - 12400 (0) rubles/ton;
- Taganrog - 12000 (0) rubles/ton.
Railways transported a record volume of grain in 2023. A total of 32.8 million tons were transported, which is 37% more than in 2022. Grain exports increased by almost 1.7 times to 23.6 million tons, while domestic transportation amounted to 9.1 million tons.
The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation reports that farmers are supplied with grain seeds at a level of 92.6%. Agricultural producers are switching to the use of domestic seeds, according to the agency's information.
Quotas on the import of seeds of certain crops (potatoes, wheat, rye, barley, corn, soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower, and sugar beet) from unfriendly countries may be introduced from February 1 to December 31, 2024.
Hydrometcenter believes that sharp weather changes did not affect winter crops. Winter crop conditions in January are considered satisfactory. This season, winter crops survived the winter in better condition compared to last year, with less than 4% of ungerminated and poorly developed sowings (usually around 8%).
According to the company "ProZerno," rye prices in some regions started to actively rise last week. This may be related to the interest of processors in high-quality rye for resource preparation for processing, as well as purchases for the domestic market.
Russia's share of wheat in tenders by Egypt's GASC in the first half of the 2023/2024 season was 66%, compared to 62% last year. In the current season, GASC purchased 2.9 million tons of wheat from Russia.
Customs duties on wheat and corn will be reduced starting January 24, 2024. The duty on barley will no longer be zero for the first time since October 2023.
During trading on the NTB from 11.12.2023 to 19.01.2024, the State Intervention Fund purchased 408.8 thousand tons of grain for 5775.1 million rubles.
**Belarus:** Grain and legume crop harvesting results are being summarized. After processing, the harvest amounted to 7 million 665 thousand tons (compared to 8 million 693 thousand tons in 2022). Corn production increased by 1.5 times compared to the previous year.
**Kazakhstan:** KTZ has extended the ban on loading trains bound for China due to a large number of loaded trains from Kazakhstan and slow acceptance rates in China.
For more information, please refer to the [Grain Market Review as of 19.01.2024](https://zerno.ru/sites/zerno.ru/files/reports/cereals_week_254___15.01.2024-19.01.2024_rus.pdf).
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