International wheat prices fluctuated: rising on CBOT, falling on KCBT and MGE. In Russia, wheat prices are rising, while corn prices have fallen.

During the last week, from December 9 to 16, 2022, international wheat prices showed heterogeneous movements. Prices for:

• soft red winter wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZW) rose to 753.50 cents per bushel (+5.72%);
• hard red winter wheat at the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT, KE) decreased to 844.00 cents per bushel (-0.79%);
• hard red spring wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE, MWE) dropped to 909.50 cents per bushel (-1.94%);

Contract price for corn at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZC) climbed to 653.00 cents per bushel (+2.88%). Price for rice at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZR) fell to $16.68 per hundredweight (-0.24%).

Russian base prices (FOB Black Sea):

• wheat increased to $313.80 per ton (0.06%);
• barley decreased to $282.60 per ton (-0.11%);
• corn - dropped to $216.50 per ton (-3.22%);

Russian wheat price index, CPT Novorossiysk, fell to 14,784 rubles per ton (-0.33%).

Prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein, FOB Black Sea) for delivery in January 2023 decreased to $310.5 per ton (-$5.25 per ton), for corn - increased to $251 per ton (+$1 per ton).

Prices for purchasing internal 4th class wheat with 12.5% protein at the Black Sea and Azov Sea elevators for the reporting period:

• Azov - 12,300 (-200) rubles per ton
• Caucasus (port) - 12,800 (-300) rubles per ton
• Novorossiysk - 14,400 (0) rubles per ton
• Rostov-on-Don - 12,300 (-200) rubles per ton
• Taganrog - 11,900 (-200) rubles per ton
• Taman - 13,900 (-900) rubles per ton

Starting from December 21, 2022, export duties on wheat and meslin will increase to 3,333.8 rubles per ton (+190.4 / +6.06%), on barley - to 2,686.9 rubles per ton (+83.8 / +3.22%), on corn will decrease to 0.0 rubles per ton (-78.2 / -100.00%).

As of December 14, more than 159 million tons of grain were harvested in Russia in bunker weight (approximately 150 million tons in clean weight).

Winter crops were sown on an area of 17.7 million hectares. Approximately 97% of the crops are in good or satisfactory condition. However, the total area of winter crops turned out to be less than planned, due to weather conditions in the Volga region and Central Russia. It was decided to conduct additional sowing in spring.

From August 1 to December 16, 2022, the state intervention fund purchased 2.75 million tons of grain for 41.46 billion rubles.

Russian Ministry of Agriculture may consider increasing the grain export quota beyond the declared 25.5 million tons if necessary.

The governors of the largest grain regions sent a letter to President Putin proposing to limit the participation of foreign companies in the export of Russian grain.

Only 60% of the Russian market is occupied by domestic seeds. Regarding seed breeding of many crops, Russia is at a very initial stage. Authorities do not plan to restrict seed imports to the detriment of the harvest.

Prices for domestic fertilizers will not increase starting from January 1, 2023; the possibility of indexation is under discussion.

Agricultural producers of the Siberian Federal District in 2022 achieved a record grain harvest of 19.1 million tons, which is 8.5% more than the previous year.

Russian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the total grain harvest in 2023 will reach 125-127 million tons, with wheat accounting for 80-85 million tons. It is preliminarily assumed that the total area under grain and leguminous crops will be 47.6 million hectares, which is 136 thousand hectares more than the current year.

Ukraine harvested almost 45 million tons of grains and legumes.

Details in the grain market review on 16.12.2022.

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