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China will import 11 million tons of wheat in 2023, which is less than last year's 13.28 million tons, but significantly higher than the five-year average of 6.5 million tons, The Western Producer online publication reported on October 13, citing data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). ).
Indonesia is forecast to purchase 10 million tonnes of wheat, up slightly from 9.57 million tonnes in 2022. Purchases are in line with the 2017–2021 average of 10.7 million tonnes.
China and Indonesia are the world's largest wheat buyers. “China is a long-term and loyal customer that values Canadian quality,” said Cereals Canada Director of Market Information and Trading Leif Carlson.
The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), citing data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said the country's spring wheat production fell 0.9% in 2023-24. This is the first decline in seven years.
Spring rains in China have reduced yields in key regions. The area under wheat increased by 0.4%. Productivity decreased by 1.3%. “A sample survey carried out by a well-known agricultural firm showed that spring wheat production was down by 10%,” FAS said.
China harvested 136.5 million tons of wheat. 37 million tons will be used for animal feed. A year earlier, 31 million tons were used for feed. Wheat replaces corn in feed rations. The price for feed wheat in September was lower by about $27 (2.65 thousand rubles) per ton than for corn.
Wheat can completely replace corn in chicken feed and from 10% to 100% in pig feed. From January to August 2023, China purchased 9.4 million tons of wheat.
“Indonesia's revenue has grown by 27% since 2015 and is likely to grow by another 48% by 2030. This vast archipelago is home to a rapidly growing middle class,” explained EDC economist Stuart Bergman.
In the long term, Indonesia's economy will grow by five to six percent per year. The country's imports have risen 30% since 2015 to $240 billion (RUB 23.5 trillion) a year and are expected to grow by seven percent a year over the next five years.
