IKAR has raised the forecast for corn gross harvest.

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has raised its forecast for corn production by 0.7 million tons to 16 million tons, according to Interfax. 

IKAR's general director Dmitry Rylko noted that this is a record figure, surpassing last year's maximum of 15.8 million tons. Additionally, IKAR has increased its estimate of corn export potential from 5.5 million tons to 6 million tons. 

The overall grain harvest forecast by IKAR is 141.2 million tons (previous estimate was 140 million tons). T

he export potential for the current season has also been raised from 64 million tons to 64.5 million tons. The analytical center "Rusagrotrans" also raised its forecast for corn production in 2023 to 16 million tons due to higher yields in the Central region. 

Overall, analysts predict that the total grain harvest will reach 143.3 million tons (previous estimate was 143.2 million tons). The director of the analytical company "ProZerno," Vladimir Petrichenko, told Agroinvestor that his corn yield forecast is more modest at 15.2 million tons. The expert believes that further forecast revisions will depend on the weather. He stated, "Currently, the weather conditions allow for a positive outlook in the cultivation regions." 

According to his assessment, the corn export potential is approximately at the same level as last season – 5.9 million tons. He noted, "It will be more challenging to export more due to Ukrainian dumping and the fact that current prices are not the most favorable for all grains. Ukrainian grain is sold much cheaper than ours – $170 per ton compared to $205 per ton." 

As reported by Kommersant on October 6, over 2.9 million tons of grains and legumes have been harvested in the Belgorod region. Corn for grain has been harvested from 16.9 thousand hectares out of 115.8 thousand hectares of sown areas. If the current yield remains the same, Belgorod farmers may harvest another 1 million tons of corn, bringing the total grain harvest to almost 4 million tons. In the Voronezh region, the harvesting of grains and legumes was completed by mid-September, with over 5.2 million tons of the initial weight harvested. 

A year earlier, over 5.8 million tons were harvested by the same date, with the difference attributed to reduced sowing for the 2023 crop by about 242 thousand hectares of winter crops. Including corn, the total grain harvest in 2023 may exceed 6 million tons. By mid-September in the Kursk region, over 4 million tons of grain were harvested. According to regional authorities' forecasts, the corn yield for grain may reach around 1.5 million tons. 

Therefore, the region may slightly fall short of last year's total grain harvest. In the Lipetsk region, including corn, there are expectations to harvest 4 million tons of grain, matching last year's level. 

By early October, 3.4 million tons of grains and legumes were harvested. Corn yield turned out to be higher than last year's. 

In the Oryol region, 3.5 million tons of grain were harvested by the beginning of October, with an expected total harvest of around 4.2 million tons including corn. 

A year earlier, the region's farmers harvested 3.9 million tons of grain. Additionally, on October 4, the press service of the Volgograd region administration reported that the region's farmers had started mass harvesting of corn. By that time, around 20 thousand tons had been harvested from 3 thousand hectares. 

The statement highlighted, "They are harvesting an average of 65 quintals per hectare – significantly exceeding last year's achievements. On the same date in 2022, the average figure was about 44 quintals per hectare."