Experts lowered wheat harvest forecasts in Russia in 2023 due to unfavorable weather

Experts of the grain market of the Russian Federation are lowering their forecasts for harvesting wheat this year due to unfavorable weather conditions for sowing winter crops.

Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), told Interfax that the estimate of the wheat harvest has been reduced from 87 million to 84 million tons. "But this is still a virtual forecast, with big reservations," he said.

According to Rylko, the change in the assessment is due to three factors. "The first is the ice crust on the fields, which we saw in a fairly large region south of Moscow," he said. of all, will affect the state of winter crops. And the third is the still arid conditions in the south of Russia. "

The IKAR forecast for the gross grain harvest is 128.5 million tons.

Reduced the forecast for the harvest of wheat and the Russian Grain Union.

According to its vice-president Alexander Korbut, this was done "based on the current situation, although, of course, it may change." "In the future, if weather conditions do not worsen, but are average annual, then wheat production this year will be in the range of 77.5-80.5 million tons. Moreover, the proximity to the lower border is most likely - from the middle a little down," - he said, noting that the previous forecast was higher.

According to him, the need to lower the forecast was obvious. “In the first period after the winter sowing, it was announced that 3% of crops were in poor condition, recently the Ministry of Agriculture reported 6%,” he said. fields are most exposed to the risks of losses and a decrease in the quality of plants, respectively, and crops.

Korbut confirmed that the situation in the south is also causing concern "due to the fact that there is little rainfall, especially in the Stavropol Territory." "In the central regions, the fields are open, and if there are frosts, then this is an additional risk," he said.

At the same time, Korbut stressed that the projected wheat harvest is "more than a sufficient harvest." “There will be no problems with domestic consumption and exports. Moreover, given the enormous reserves that will remain at the end of the season (ends on June 30, 2023 - IF), this harvest will be a powerful factor in pressure on prices and, accordingly, on the economy of agricultural producers if the export duty on grain is preserved," he said.

The union estimates the gross grain harvest this year at 117-123 million tons.

The analytical center of Rusagrotrans JSC lowered the estimate of the gross wheat harvest by 1 million tons, to 81.5 million tons, according to the pole.rf magazine (the pole.rf marketplace is part of Demetra-Holding). The reason is the formation of an ice crust ground to the ground in a number of regions of the Central Black Earth Region and in the western regions of the Volga region due to sharp temperature fluctuations. This increases the area of damage to winter crops and reduces the yield of the remaining fields, analysts say.

The grain harvest as a whole is estimated at 127.2 million tons.

According to preliminary data from Rosstat, grain harvest in 2022 amounted to 153.8 million tons, including 104.4 million tons of wheat. In 2021 - 121.4 million and 76.1 million tons, respectively. This year, the Ministry of Agriculture expects a harvest of 125-127 million tons, including 80-85 million tons of wheat.