Grain prices fluctuate: wheat has fallen on the CBOT, while corn has risen; Russia is increasing wheat exports, ships of the "RIF" trading company are halted.

During the reporting week, from 05.04.24 to 12.04.24, global wheat prices moved in different directions. The price of: - soft red winter wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZW) decreased to 556.00 cents/bushel (-1.98%); - hard red winter wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT, KE) increased to 589.75 cents/bushel (+1.29%); - hard red spring wheat on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE, MWE) decreased to 642.75 cents/bushel (-0.81%). The corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZC) rose to 435.50 cents/bushel (+0.29%). The price of rice in Chicago (CBOT, ZR) increased to $17.23/cwt (+6.62%). Russian indicative prices (FOB Black Sea): - wheat prices decreased to $234.00/ton (-0.04%); - barley prices decreased to $178.00/ton (-0.45%); - corn prices decreased to $168.30/ton (-3.50%). The Russian wheat index, CPT Novorossiysk, rose to 13656 rubles/ton (+1.43%). Prices for purchasing 4th class wheat with 12.5% protein at port elevators of the Black and Azov Seas during the reporting period were as follows: - Azov - 11600 (-300) rubles/ton - Novorossiysk - 14000 (0) rubles/ton - Rostov-on-Don - 11600 (-300) rubles/ton - Taganrog - 11200 (-300) rubles/ton - Taman - 14000 (0) rubles/ton The US Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports this season by 1 million tons to 52 million tons in its April report. The wheat harvest forecast remained unchanged at 91.5 million tons. Grain trader TD "RIF" is forced to reduce expenses, downsize staff, and does not rule out the possibility of liquidation. 9 vessels of TD "RIF" have been detained in ports since March 18. The company's owner, Petr Khodykin, believes that the port delays were organized by a competitor, "Demetra Holding," in hopes of acquiring "RIF" assets cheaply. The Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Agriculture, and Federal Antimonopoly Service will analyze diesel fuel prices related to sowing in comparison to grain price changes to determine the "target level" of diesel fuel prices for agricultural producers in 2024. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Trade Union "Rusprodsoyuz" Dmitry Leonov notes that buckwheat is one of the cheapest products in the Russian market due to high yields and large buckwheat stocks. Experts suggest that sowing areas will be reduced due to decreased profitability. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture states that it closely monitors the situation with buckwheat production and prices. The planned sown area for 2024 exceeds 1.2 million hectares, matching last year's level. Assets of the holding company "AgroTerra" have been transferred to the management of Rosimushchestvo in accordance with a decree signed on April 8. The company was established in 2008 by the investment company NCH Capital Inc., founded by American with Ukrainian roots George Ror. In Russia, the holding company unites 24 farms in the Tula, Ryazan, Penza, Kursk, Tambov, Lipetsk, and Oryol regions, as well as elevators with a total capacity of over 500 thousand tons. By mid-2023, "AgroTerra" was among the top 20 largest agroholdings in Russia in terms of agricultural land area. New customs duties on wheat were introduced starting from April 17, 2024: increase, on barley and corn: decrease. A total of 962.7 thousand tons of grain were purchased for 13696.5 million rubles in the state intervention fund following trading on the National Mercantile Exchange for the period from 11.12.2023 to 12.04.2024. BELARUS Starting from April 12, the export of wheat and other cereal crops from Belarus has been restricted. Export is carried out through one-time licenses issued by the Ministry of Antimonopoly Regulation and Trade in coordination with regional executive committees and the Minsk City Executive Committee. Similar restrictions were previously introduced at the end of September 2022, at the end of March, and in October 2023. Corn sowing has begun in the Brest, Minsk, and Grodno regions. The total sown area is 3.3 thousand hectares (0.3% of the plan). Early spring cereals and leguminous crops (except for corn, buckwheat, millet) have been sown on 435.1 thousand hectares (73%). KAZAKHSTAN From April 12, a 6-month restriction on wheat imports into Kazakhstan has been introduced. The restriction applies to all types of transportation except rail, which can supply poultry and flour milling enterprises. The restriction also extends to EAEU member states. UKRAINE Farmers have already sown 1.26 million hectares of spring cereals and leguminous crops. The wheat sowing area was 173.9 thousand hectares, and barley - 683.4 thousand hectares. The US Department of Agriculture increased its wheat export forecast from Ukraine to 17.5 million tons (+1.5 million) in its April report. The wheat crop forecast remained unchanged at 23.4 million tons. The corn forecast also remained the same.