Prices for sugar are stabilizing against a backdrop of overproduction and unfavorable conditions in the production regions.

Wholesale sugar prices, after rising from 51.5 rubles/kg to 57.0 rubles/kg last week, have slightly decreased. Factors contributing to price growth include:

• The weakening of the ruble, which has fallen by 9% against foreign currencies over the past three weeks;
• An increase in global raw sugar prices, which have stabilized above 22 cents/lb;
• Proximity of sugar beet-growing regions to conflict zones;
• A dry September in major sugar-producing regions.

Only one factor, but quite significant, affects price reduction - the overall surplus of sugar this season, estimated at approximately 700-800 thousand tons (excess production + imports + high available stocks). Unless there is further depreciation of the ruble or an increase in global sugar prices, the most likely scenario in the medium term is price stabilization at the current level.

The forecast for white sugar production, taking into account syrup and molasses processing, remains at 6.3-6.4 million tons.

During the first decade of October, precipitation in sugar beet-growing areas corresponds to the average value of the previous six years. However, this cannot yet compensate for the dry September. As a result, the most critical situation has arisen:

• In Voronezh region (5% of the average precipitation norm);
• In Tambov region (12%);
• In Belgorod region (13%).

The approximate production cost of white sugar from raw sugar (including VAT and duties) is $926.92/ton (89.86 rubles/kg).

As of October 10, 2024, the production cost of sugar from imported raw sugar is as follows:

• In Uzbekistan - $781.0/ton (66.51 rubles/kg in Krasnodar including delivery) without VAT and duties;
• In Kazakhstan - $713.9/ton (65.04 rubles/kg in Krasnodar including delivery).

According to Sugar.ru estimates, in the first 10 days of October, Belarusian sugar imports to Russia amounted to 8.5 thousand tons.

Since the beginning of September, Russian sugar exports have sharply increased and, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to approximately 25 thousand tons in 10 days. One-third of white sugar exports go beyond the Eurasian Economic Union.

Transit sugar cargo through Russia since the beginning of the month amounted to about 2 thousand tons of Belarusian sugar.

The volume of Russian sugar beet raw material exports has also increased. Since the beginning of September, over 9 thousand tons have been exported to Uzbekistan. Last season, sugar beet raw material exports reached 125 thousand tons.

The transit quantity of sugar beet raw material transported through Russia since the beginning of September is 3.3 thousand tons, from Novorossiysk to Central Asia.

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