Prices for wheat and soybeans rose on Wednesday, corn fell in price

On Wednesday, September 06, 2023, wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT) rose for the second day in a row. As a result of the trading day, December quotations of soft winter wheat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CBOT rose to $223.77 per ton, December futures of hard winter wheat KCBT in Kansas City - up to $275.39 per ton, December futures of hard spring wheat MGEX - up to $287, 51 per ton.

Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Wednesday that fuel shortages threaten to derail the fall harvest and sowing. This could hamper the flow of grain from Russia, the world's largest exporter of wheat, which has kept prices down.

Chicago corn prices tumbled on Wednesday as concerns about US crops hit by hot, dry weather were offset by a record harvest from Brazil's biggest corn exporter.

Harvesting of corn in parts of the western Midwest began earlier than usual after hot, dry weather accelerated crop maturation, analysts and agronomists say. Rapid ripening can reduce corn quality or yield, and farmers with lower quality corn may have to sell it at a discount.

Conab forecasts corn exports of 50 million tons and almost 97 million tons of soybean exports from Brazil. Brazil is set to surpass the US as the world's largest corn exporter this year.

Ukraine also enjoyed a record corn harvest, with the 2023 corn crop set to grow by 5.8% to 29.3 million tonnes, French consulting company Agritel said.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange soybean futures edged higher on Wednesday after USDA weekly data showed crop conditions worsened more than expected during a period of hot, dry weather.

The downgrading of the crop ratings has heightened expectations among traders that the USDA may lower its yield forecast in its September 12 monthly report.

The USDA is already forecasting that domestic soybean stocks will fall to an eight-year low in the 2023/24 season, pushing stocks down.

The US Department of Agriculture downgraded the rating of the soybean crop in the country at the level of "good-excellent" to 53% from 58% last week. The corn crop was rated good-excellent at 53%, up from 56% a week ago. Ratings from "good" to "excellent" for both crops are the lowest for this time of year since 2012, a historic drought year.

In Iowa, the second largest soybean producing state in the US, 49% of its soybean crop is in good to excellent condition, down 17 percentage points from a year ago, according to the USDA. Wisconsin's Good-Excellent rating is down 23 percentage points from last year to 55%.

The USDA's latest soybean yield forecast released in August showed 50.9 bushels per acre, up from 49.5 bushels last year. A farmer survey released on Wednesday by brokerage Allendale predicts a yield of 49.58 bushels.

November CBOT soybean futures rose 11.1/4 cents to $13.76-1/4 a bushel. December wheat rose 9-3/4 cents to $6.09 a bushel, while December corn fell 1/4 cent to $4.85-3/4 a bushel on the CBOT.

The start of the US corn harvest put pressure on corn futures after the market hit a weekly high, analysts say.

In recent weeks, global rapeseed prices have remained stable, but forecasts for an increase in the Australian canola crop have led to a drop in quotations. ABARES experts in a new quarterly report raised the country's canola crop forecast for the 2023/24 season from 4.9 million tons to 5.2 million tons, which will be inferior to last year's record 7.3 million tons, but will exceed the 5-year average. Canadian canola remains the most expensive and therefore cannot compete with Australian or Ukrainian rapeseed in the EU market.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT) on Wednesday, contracts for delivery in November, December:

wheat (DKBR 2023) - $223.77/t (21,830 RUB/t) - plus 1.63%;
corn (DKBR 2023) - $191.24/t (18,650 RUB/t) - minus 0.05%;
soybeans (nbr. 2023) - 505.68 dollars / t (49320 rubles / t) - plus 0.82%;
rice November (Nbr. 2023) - 817.98 USD/t (79780 RUB/t) - minus 0.57%;
rapeseed (ICE, Nov. 2023) - 795.20 cad/t (57140 RUB/t) - minus 0.29%.

On Wednesday, the French grain market rose. As a result of the trading day, the December quotations of milling wheat on the Parisian MATIF exchange rose to €237.25 per ton (in dollar terms - up to $254.33). November corn futures - up to €214.00 per ton (in dollar terms - up to $229.41).

On the Paris Stock Exchange (MATIF) on Wednesday, Monday, the quotes for the November, December contracts at the close of trading amounted to:

milling wheat (dkbr 2023) - 254.33 USD/t (24810 RUB/t) - plus 0.91%;
corn (nbr 2023) - 229.41 USD/t (22380 RUB/t) - plus 0.25%;
sunflower (Sept. on the SAFEX exchange - 9238.00 zar./t (46860 rub./t) - plus 0.96%;
sunflower oil (Saint Rotterdam, in bulk FOB) - 930.00 USD/t (90710 RUR/t) - minus 1.06%.

Reference exchange rates on 09/06/2023:
RUB 97.5383 = US dollar
RUB 104.9043 = Euro
RUB 71.8250 = Canadian dollar
RUB 50.7243 = 10 South African rand