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USDA analysts in the April report slightly raised the forecast for world wheat production in 2022/23 MY to 789 million tons against 788.9 million tons in the March report (779.1 million tons in the previous season).
In particular, the forecast was raised for Ethiopia by 1.3 million tons, up to 7 million tons (5.5 million tons in 2021/22 MY). At the same time, the estimate was reduced for the EU - to 134.3 million tons against 134.7 million tons according to the preliminary forecast (138.2 million tons in 2021/22 MY), Argentina - to 12.55 (12.9; 22. 1) million tons and Saudi Arabia - up to 0.6 (1; 0.5) million tons.
Experts reduced the forecast of world grain exports in the current season to 210.4 (212.3; 205.3) million tons.
Thus, the forecast was reduced for the EU - to 37 (35; 32) million tons, Argentina - to 5 (6.5; 17.6) million tons, Brazil - to 3.5 (4.4; 3.1) million tons and India - up to 1.65 (2; 10.5) million tons. At the same time, experts slightly raised the forecast for grain exports for the Russian Federation - up to 45 (43.5; 33) million tons and Ukraine - up to 14.5 (13.5; 18.8) million tons.
The forecast for world ending stocks of wheat in MY 2022/23 was reduced by analysts to 265 million tons against 267.2 million tons according to the March report, which is also inferior to the result in MY 2021/22 (272.1 million tons). In particular, downward adjustments were made for India - up to 10.5 (12.6; 19.5) million tons and Iran - up to 4.2 (4.6; 5.1) million tons. In turn, the forecast was raised for the USA - up to 16.2 (15.4; 19) million tons, the EU - up to 12.1 (11; 13.3) million tons and Brazil - up to 1.7 (1; 1 ,1) million tons.
