Analysts raise the forecast for the harvest of soybeans and corn in Brazil

Analysts at the consulting company StoneX raised the forecast for the soybean crop in Brazil in 2023/24 MY to a record 163.63 million tons (+156 thousand tons compared to the August forecast; + 3.8% per year) due to adjustments to the estimate of the sown area under oilseed.

In particular, the expansion of the sown area is recorded in the state of Minas Gerais - up to the expected 2.24 million hectares, which is 40 thousand hectares more than the preliminary forecasts. The total soybean area in Brazil is estimated at 45.14 million hectares, which is about 1 million hectares more than last season.

Also, the forecast for the harvest of safrinha corn in 2022/23 MY was increased by 0.8 million tons compared to the previous figure - up to 109.1 million tons. The upgrade comes as a result of a more favorable outlook for corn yields in Paraná, which is in the late harvest phase.

At the same time, experts lowered the forecast for the production of first-crop corn in MY 2023/24 in Brazil by 1.5% (or 430 thousand tons) compared to the August figure - to 28.2 million tons. The adjustment is due to a reduction in sown areas in Bahia by 5%, to 418 thousand hectares, and Minas Gerais - by 6%, to 564 thousand hectares. So the total sown area under the specified grain will reach 4.07 million hectares.