Tomorrow is the deadline for extending the grain deal. Odessa port left the last ship

Russia has so far not given any signal to change its position on the extension of the grain deal, despite a number of rumors about behind-the-scenes talks about a possible extension in exchange for connecting Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT system. What will happen to the deal?

The last vessel left the port of Odessa before the completion of the grain deal, writes Reuters. It should deliver 15,000 tons of rapeseed and 23,000 tons of corn to the Netherlands. Russian inspectors did not give permission to the passage of ships in the Black Sea to anyone else.

The grain deal expires tomorrow. Russia has so far received no signals of agreement to extend the agreement.
Moscow has repeatedly stated that its demands under the Black Sea Initiative have not been met.

This week, Reuters wrote that the UN offered Putin to extend the grain deal in exchange for connecting a subsidiary of Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that he knew nothing about new proposals for a grain deal.

Georgy BovtGeorgy Bovt political scientist, journalist“The grain deal is beneficial for Ukraine, beneficial for Turkey. Turkey is one of the top ten and even, in my opinion, the top five buyers of Ukrainian grain at a big discount, it processes it into flour, and in terms of flour it has taken the first place in the world in terms of exports. Contrary to popular belief among us, I believe that the grain deal is beneficial for Russia too, if Russia had not signed this deal, then blocking sanctions by the United States could be applied against its agricultural sector, for example, that is, everything could be more much worse. There are no such blocking sanctions, moreover, formally the United States imposed very mild sanctions in the agricultural sector, where everything rests on the fact that private companies do not want to cooperate with Russia. Several of the world's leading grain traders have recently left Russia, not because they were ordered from Washington, but because they believe it is reputational damage, some have been working in Russia since the 19th century. Nevertheless, I think that the extension of the grain deal would objectively not infringe upon the interests of Russia. Moreover, it is possible that if it had not extended it, then perhaps the tightening of the sanctions policy in the agricultural sector and against the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline would indeed be. It was blown up there on Ukrainian territory, but an export branch is being built on Russian territory, and it should work before the end of the year. In the absence of a grain deal, sanctions can also be applied against him, I think. Therefore, the forecast is that the option of freezing for some time is possible, and then Russia will wait for at least some symbolic steps to be taken towards it, for example, I think that reconnecting Rosselkhozbank will be enough. From Turkey, the following actions may follow, it can act as the sole guarantor of the safe passage of merchant ships through the Black Sea and the Black Sea straits through its navy. Relations between Moscow and Ankara are going through another testing phase, since Erdogan won the elections, he now needs Moscow's support to a lesser extent than before. Before the elections, he received several gifts from Moscow, including, by the way, an extension of the grain deal on May 18 for two months, and now he, in general, speaks from a position of strength, realizing that Russia is quite dependent on Turkey as a logistics hub. The transport corridor through Turkey and Azerbaijan is really important, if you slam the door, it can close. Turkey will go so far as to include the sanctions regime in this part, absolutely no one needs it. And, in general, there will be nothing special to oppose to this. I think that this will not be implemented immediately, after some time. Now there is active trade, as I understand it, behind the scenes, and Russia is raising the degree of this trade, in my opinion, this is a competent position, because at least something can be bargained for. If nothing can be negotiated, this, of course, will not be very good, in which case the Turks can really prolong this deal without the participation of Russia.”

Ukraine could lose up to half a billion dollars a month if the grain deal is broken. This follows from the calculations of RIA Novosti based on data from the UN, the Ministry of Agriculture and the customs of Ukraine. According to the agency, in August 2022 - June 2023, Ukraine exported 50.6 million tons of grain for a total amount of almost $10 billion. The bulk of exports pass through ports: in general, during the duration of the deal, the share of deliveries through them amounted to 78%, while in recent months it has consistently exceeded 80%.