Russia, which holds leading positions in the global export of grain and wheat, may lose its positions due to a decrease in harvest this year. The decrease in harvest is associated with unfavorable weather conditions in the southern part of the country and the deterioration of sowing technologies among peasants.
Unfavorable weather conditions and drought in the south of Russia threaten the harvest of grain and wheat, as well as the income from their export. Due to this, industry analysts have already lowered their grain collection forecasts for this year. For instance, the Institute for Agricultural Market Conjuncture (IKAR) has reduced the forecast for grain collection in Russia in 2024 to 142 million tons, and the forecast for wheat collection to 91 million tons due to drought in the southern part of the country.
The President of the Russian Grain Union A. Zlochevsky reported that the Ministry of Agriculture has lowered the harvest forecast for this year to 132 million tons, and analysts predict even lower results - 137 million tons or 142 million tons. However, the forecasts remain preliminary as it is necessary to analyze the results of the spring sowing. Nevertheless, it can already be said that the spring sowing is falling behind the plan.
Questions also arise regarding the wheat harvest. The weather situation leads to a lack of moisture in key areas in the south of the country, and wheat production forecasts have been slightly reduced. Currently, the forecast stands at 91-93 million tons of wheat, which still exceeds the average figures of recent years. However, in case of deteriorating weather conditions, such as drought, forecasts may be altered, says Dmitry Leonov, Vice Chairman of the "Rusprodsoyuz" association.
Unfavorable weather conditions in the south of Russia are causing serious problems with the harvest. The General Director of IKAR D. Rybko notes that the main reason for the decrease in the harvest is drought, especially in the regions of the Rostov region, Krasnodar and Stavropol territories, Voronezh and Volgograd regions. However, the situation in the Central Federal District is slightly better.
According to Reuters analysts, the south of Russia experienced a dry and warm April, which has not been seen for at least the last three decades. However, May saw cool temperatures, and cold weather may help prevent significant harvest losses. July is a crucial period for achieving maximum yield. However, the loss of harvest in Russia may be a boon for other major wheat suppliers, such as India, Australia, and the United States, and weaken Russia's positions, which have doubled their wheat yields over the last 20 years, according to a Reuters analyst.
Experts also predict a decrease in grain exports from Russia in this agricultural year. They have already reduced grain export forecasts from 68 to 64.5 million tons, and wheat from 52 to 50.5 million tons. Nonetheless, harvest and export forecasts may change in the future.
The main reason for the decrease in the level of technological sophistication in sowing lies in the lack of finances among peasants, leading to a shortage of funds to purchase fertilizers, protection means, and other materials. The President of the Russian Grain Union A. Zlochevsky notes that the export duty paid by peasants is the reason. The export duty is shifted onto the shoulders of peasants who do not have the physical ability to buy necessary materials and protection means. In Zlochevsky's opinion, this is a problem that reduces the technological sophistication of sowing and increases losses in unfavorable weather conditions.
Despite the unfavorable weather conditions and the decrease in technological sophistication in sowing, experts note that the situation may improve if there are rains in May. The level of harvest losses will depend on the weather and technological sophistication in sowing. It is necessary to note that there have been cases of significant harvest reductions in history due to drought, but the level of losses in Russia may be higher due to low technological sophistication in sowing. This could have a negative impact on the country's economy and its positions in the global market.
