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Since Monday, we have been observing an increase in wholesale prices from producers for sugar, which today, August 17, began to accelerate. At SPIMEX all lots were sold at 59.50 rubles/kg (EXW CFD), at NTB similar lots at 60.0 rubles/kg remained unsold. According to representatives of the regions, the current price increase has not yet been supported by final demand.
According to Sugar.ru price monitoring data, for the period from August 10, 2023 to August 17, 2023, the dollar exchange rate fell by -0.7% (on August 10 - 97.40 rubles / $, on August 17 - 96.70 rubles / $) . The ruble Moscow wholesale price for sugar decreased by 0.50 rubles/kg (-0.79%), the Krasnodar wholesale price increased by 1.50 rubles/kg (+2.65%). The Moscow dollar wholesale price for sugar decreased by $0.001/kg (-0.15%), the Krasnodar wholesale price increased by $0.020/kg (+3.45%).
Lipetsk, Oryol, Tambov regions report the start of sugar beet harvesting two weeks earlier than the average. This means that such a large harvest is expected in these regions that it is more profitable to start cutting insufficiently ripe beets now than rotten beets at the end of processing. In this case, we are talking only about the gross volume of the beet harvest, the second important component of the harvest, the sugar content of the beet (digestion), is still inferior to last year, so we leave our estimate of sugar production in the season at 6.3-6.6 million tons.
According to the Federal Customs Service, processed by Sugar.Ru, last season 2022/23 Russia exported 578 thousand tons of granulated pulp outside the EAEU, Turkey and China were the main recipients. Last season Russia exported 786 thousand tons of molasses pulp, mainly to the Netherlands and Latvia. As a result, the export of pulp for the season amounted to 1364 thousand tons. In the 2021/2022 season, Russia exported 1495 thousand tons of granulated pulp, mainly to the EU countries, there was no export of molasses pulp.
The estimated cost of white sugar from raw sugar is $825.28/ton (79.81 rubles/kg).
As of August 17, 2023, the cost of sugar from imported raw sugar in Uzbekistan is $838.4/t (71.89 rubles/kg in Krasnodar including delivery) excluding VAT and duties, in Kazakhstan - $771.1/t (70 41 rubles/kg in Krasnodar including delivery) without VAT and duties.
According to the railway monitoring Sugar.Ru, for 16 days of August 2023, 3.6 thousand tons of sugar were imported into the Russian Federation (for the whole of July - 4.7 thousand tons, June - 16.0 thousand tons). Export rates are not very high, but this is a typical situation for the beginning of the season. Since the beginning of August, sugar exports amounted to 12.2 thousand tons of white sugar (for the whole of July - 19.9 thousand tons, in June - 30.9 thousand tons). Export of white sugar in August goes mainly to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Since the beginning of the month, rail transit through the Russian railway has amounted to 1.4 thousand tons of Belarusian sugar to Central Asia.
The transit of raw sugar for 16 days of August amounted to 27.5 thousand tons from the ports of Novorossiysk and St. Petersburg and Riga, all shipments went to Uzbekistan. Since the beginning of August, Russia has imported 20 thousand tons of raw sugar to the Raevsky sugar factory.
