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Please note that the export statistics for rapeseed cake and meal presented in this article are based on USDA data (United States Department of Agriculture). The export data is not presented by calendar years, but by periods corresponding to the agricultural year (2001/2002-2023/2024, with a forecast for 2024/2025). The agricultural year, referred to as the "Marketing Year" in the original USDA source, lasts one year. For the Russian market, this period corresponds to July-June. For example, the 2023/2024 agricultural year covers the period from July 2023 to June 2024.
In the 2023/2024 agricultural year, the export volume of rapeseed cake and meal from Russia amounted to 700.0 thousand tons, which, according to AB-Center calculations, is 3.7% (or 25.0 thousand tons) higher than the previous agricultural year. Over the past 5 years, export volumes have increased by 2.8 times (by 448.0 thousand tons), and over 10 years, by 2.6 times (435.0 thousand tons).
Russian rapeseed cake and meal are exported to various European countries, Turkey, and since 2023, in significant quantities to China.
Let's move on to the forecast for the export of rapeseed cake and meal from Russia.
According to the USDA forecast for the 2024/2025 agricultural year, export shipments of rapeseed cake and meal from Russia will reach 1,000.0 thousand tons, which is 42.9% higher than in 2023/2024 year. According to AB-Center data, the expansion of export shipments will occur as production volumes increase, which, in turn, is based on the expansion of the raw material base (it is assumed that the harvested rapeseed crop in Russia will increase by the end of the year).
There is a high probability that the expansion of Russian exports of rapeseed cake and meal will be carried out through the Chinese market. In the 2022/2023 agricultural year, China imported 2,030 thousand tons of rapeseed cake and meal, and in the 2023/2024 year - already 2,800 thousand tons. Forecasts suggest that by the end of 2024/2025, imports will reach 3,000 thousand tons. The Chinese market for rapeseed cake and meal is one of the largest in the world. In 2023/2024, its consumption (mainly in animal husbandry) is estimated at 14,474 thousand tons. Over the past 10 years, consumption has increased by 32.8% (3,575 thousand tons).
