Estimates of gross yields of cereals, soybeans and oil flax in the new agricultural year

The editors of Agrotrend analyzed the estimates of the 2023 harvest that have been expressed since the beginning of the 2023 calendar year. Some of the estimates are quite fresh - given in June. Some were voiced in May and even in February, and have not yet been updated. Interestingly, although it is believed that the records are over, there are forecasts for harvesting record harvests of soybeans, flax and even corn this year too.

We share with you information on 5 crops, and a brief editorial analysis with key facts on some of them.

SOYA

     (Almost) the only crop in the grains and oilseeds basket to grow in the new season
     Record factors - crop growth by 2.6% to 3.5 million hectares (SovEcon)
     Soy is almost the only commercially unconditionally attractive crop (it is actively used in animal husbandry)
     Export duty of 20% / $100 per ton does not affect domestic prices (Russia = net importer of soybeans)
     Farmers are replacing soybean-regulated crops: wheat and sunflower
     While maintaining the current growth rates in the coming seasons, the Russian Federation may face overproduction of soybeans = prices for it will decrease
     The threat of a fall in the profitability of soybeans already exists: the Ministry of Agriculture is discussing an increase in the duty to 50%, and the need from livestock is almost not growing
     Worst (but unlikely) scenario: record harvest + high stocks + low world price + rising costs = soybean sales on the verge of profitability.

OIL FLAX (CURLS)

     According to the forecast of the Oil and Fat Union, in 2023 the production of oilseed flax will be able to increase by 15% to a new record
     Growth factors - increase in crops, improvement of agricultural technologies, increase in flax processing volumes by 1.5 times
     The Russian Federation exports oilseed flax in the form of raw materials = with an increase in the yield, exports also grow
     Trend since 2018: the beginning of the export of linseed oil (about 30 thousand tons per year)
     The growth in flax production is a driver for the growth in oil production: in 2022, its exports increased to 36 thousand tons.

WHEAT

     93% of winter crops sprouted in a normal state, but in some regions it was necessary to resow the areas that had fallen due to winter
     Spring wheat area close to 12-year record: 13.8 million ha (+1 million by 2022)
     Increasing average yield
     Winter wedge decreased by 0.9 million hectares due to undersowing in the Central Federal District due to rains
     Stress scenario: we will harvest up to 120 million tons of grain and 78 million tons of wheat (IKAR, end of May)
     Optimistic scenario: 130+ Mt

CORN

     2022: record harvest, yield (60 c/ha) of corn with a decrease in harvested area by 9% to 2.6 million hectares
     Corn is one of the main elements of the feed basket in the poultry industry. But it is used only when affordability
     2022: good affordability for buyers (1,000…13,000 rubles/t at different times and in different regions), but low/non-existent margin for agricultural enterprises
     Market problem - high content of mycotoxins and pronounced dependence on imported seeds
     AB-Center and Rusagrotrans do not rule out a repeat of the record corn harvest in 2023 (the latter is estimated at 16 million tons).

BARLEY

     Barley, like corn, does not bring sustainable returns to SHP
     All experts predict a decline in the barley crop in 2023
     As of June 28, 7 million hectares of spring barley were sown in the Russian Federation
     The stability of the market supports the growth of the crop in North America and a good crop in Australia, but the negative factors are not the best crop in Argentina, as well as the situation in Ukraine.