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There were no significant changes in the sugar market last week. The demand remained low, and prices either remained stable or slightly decreased. The main factors determining price movements remained unchanged. World sugar prices remained high, while the Russian ruble continued to depreciate. However, a surplus continued to dominate the market, hindering price growth.
According to Sojuzrossakhar, the quality of sugar beet used for sugar production began to decline, resulting in a decrease in juice content. This decrease in productivity is expected and will not affect our projected production program for the season - we expect to produce 6.3 million tons of sugar, including sugar from syrup and molasses.
Our estimates show that by January 1, there will be around 300 thousand tons of excess sugar in stock.
The estimated cost of producing white sugar from sugar beet (including VAT and duties) is $906.28 per ton ($93.59 per kilogram).
Regarding the cost of imported raw materials as of December 12, 2024:
- In Uzbekistan, it was $762.3 per ton ($68.91 per kilogram in Krasnodar including delivery) excluding VAT and duties;
- In Kazakhstan, it was $695.2 per ton ($67.35 per kilogram in Krasnodar including delivery).
According to Sugar.ru, sugar imports to Russia decreased by a third in the first week of December. It is expected that 20 thousand tons of Belarusian sugar will be imported in December (30 thousand tons were imported in November).
The export of white sugar also decreased by 30%, with shipments to Tajikistan and Azerbaijan ceasing. It is expected that 55 thousand tons of white sugar will be exported in December (83 thousand tons in November). At the same time, the export of sugar beet has accelerated, and we expect exports to reach 50 thousand tons to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan in December. Thus, our estimate of sugar and sugar beet exports in December is 105 thousand tons, and from the beginning of the season until January 1 - 480 thousand tons.
During the week in December, there were no shipments of sugar beet from ports in Russia and the Baltics.
In November, the export of beet pulp, obtained from sugar beet processing, decreased by 9%, mainly due to a decrease in supplies to China. Direct deliveries of beet pulp decreased by almost three times, to 11 thousand tons. Shipments to the ports of the Far East decreased by about half.
