Global grain production forecast remains stable, reserves will reach a minimum level in the next 10 seasons, and trade will decrease by 7%.

The forecast for global grain production remains at 2315 million tonnes. The consumption forecast has been revised to 2325 million tonnes. Trading in soybeans is increasing, while rice stocks are decreasing. The IGC index has increased by 5%, although prices have fallen by 15%. Growth in grain and soybean production is expected, along with a decrease in grain trading and an increase in soybean trading.

20 September 2024

Considering compensatory changes in major commodities, the forecast for total global grain production (wheat and coarse grains) remains at 2315 million tonnes. Adjustments include a decrease for the European Union and an increase for the USA, Australia, and Argentina. The Council's forecast for global consumption has been revised 4 million tonnes higher compared to the previous month to 2325 million tonnes. A stable level of carryover stocks at 581 million tonnes is forecasted.

It is expected that soybean trade in 2023/24 will increase by 2 million tonnes to 175 million tonnes, which is 1% higher than last year. The supply and demand forecast for 2024/25 remains largely unchanged, with end-of-season stocks at 82 million tonnes (+19% y/y). Global import demand is increasing by 1 million tonnes m/m.

There is expected to be a decrease in global rice stocks at the end of the season in 2023/24 by 1 million tonnes m/m. The forecast for 2024/25 remains unchanged with trade increasing to 54 million tonnes.

The IGC (GOI) index for grains and oilseeds rose by 5%, although average prices are still down by 15% y/y.

Moderate growth in global grain production is forecasted for 2024/25 to a record 2315 million tonnes. Consumption is expected to rise to a new peak of 2325 million tonnes. Global stocks are forecasted to be 581 million tonnes, the minimum in the last 10 seasons. A 7% decrease in global trade to 421 million tonnes is expected.

A record global soybean production (+7%) is expected in 2024/25. Trade is forecasted to grow to 178 million tonnes, with shipments to China matching the peak in 2023/24. Increased deliveries are expected from the USA and Brazil.

Forecasted growth in global rice production in 2023/24 and 2024/25. Consumption growth is forecasted for 2024/25. Increased trade is expected.

In 2024/25, an increase in global lentil production is expected. Consumption and stocks are forecasted to rise.

After reaching a minimum in August, the IGC GOI has recently slightly recovered. IGC GOI for wheat, maize, and rice showed different trends. The IGC GOI sub-index for soybeans increased by 8%, despite price decreases.

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