Russia will increase grain exports by 9% in the 2023/2024 season, with Turkey remaining the main importer of Russian wheat.

In the export season of 2023/2024, Russia plans to supply 66.7 million tons of grain to the global markets, including 52.5 million tons of wheat. This is 9% more for grain and 6.6% more for wheat compared to the previous season. These data were presented by the analytical center "Rusagrotrans," the largest Russian operator in the transportation of agricultural goods, referring to RIA Novosti. Unlike its main competitors, Russian grain exports continue to grow. Grain shipments from Russia for the 2022/23 season amounted to 60 million tons, including about 47 million tons of wheat. In the current season, the Ministry of Agriculture estimated grain deliveries at 65 million tons. In January of this year, Turkey traditionally holds the first place among importers of Russian wheat, maintaining this position for the third season in a row. However, in the current season, the volume of shipments decreased by 9.3% compared to the previous year, amounting to 4.4 million tons, due to an overall decrease in imports due to a record harvest. Traditionally, Egypt takes the second place, where 3.67 million tons of wheat were shipped (-20%), but in February-March, the volume of deliveries may increase due to large orders of Russian wheat from GASC. The top three leaders are closed by Bangladesh with a record volume of 2.49 million tons (2.7 times higher). Moreover, over the past seven months, purchases of Russian wheat have significantly increased from Pakistan and Algeria (by 1.5 times to 1.76 million tons; by 20% to 1.6 million tons), more than 1.17 million tons have already been delivered to Indonesia (a 6.9-fold increase). Kenya has increased its purchases by 40%, reaching 1.06 million tons, deliveries to Brazil and Mexico are also growing (509 thousand tons and 690 thousand tons respectively). Experts note the sustained high demand for soft wheat in a significant part of importers from North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia due to drought. They also expect the maintenance of imports at a high level in China due to a significant part of wheat being switched to fodder after abnormal rains. However, global wheat prices remain under pressure due to high supply from Russia and countries in the Black Sea region (Bulgaria, Romania, Poland). Additionally, prices are also influenced by a higher than expected harvest collection and potential exports from Australia and Argentina. According to data from "Rusagrotrans," export prices for Russian wheat with delivery in February amount to $224 per ton, which corresponds to the end of the 2022/23 season. The price for French wheat is $225 per ton, and for American wheat - $258 per ton (due to active orders from China).