Forecast: Oilseed Stocks to Reach Record Levels in 2024/25
According to forecasts, oilseed stocks are expected to reach record levels in 2024/25. Oilseed production is expected to reach a new record level of 687 million tonnes, which is 4% higher than the previous year. This growth will be driven by increased soybean production in South America and the United States.
It is projected that soybean production will increase by over 6% to reach 422 million tonnes. Rapeseed will have almost unchanged production levels, as the production growth in Canada, Australia, and China will be offset by decreases in the European Union, Ukraine, and India.
Forecasts predict a slight increase in the production of other oilseeds (sunflower, cottonseed, peanuts, palm oil), except for coconut, the production of which is expected to decrease.
Demand for oilseeds is forecasted to increase by 3%, driven by increased demand for soybeans in China and the United States, as well as for feed in China and soybean oil in the US. Global oilseed processing is expected to reach 561 million tonnes.
It is expected that vegetable oil production will increase by 2% to 228 million tonnes, mainly driven by soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. The volume of vegetable oil consumption is expected to reach nearly 224 million tonnes, leading to a reduction in ending stocks.
Overall, an increase in oilseed production and consumption is forecasted, although stock levels are also expected to decrease.
An increase in sunflower production and imports is expected, although exports will decrease slightly. Sunflower seed stocks will also increase slightly, but a significant increase in sunflower meal and oil consumption is expected in Russia.
Production and imports of other oilseeds will be diverse, with some decreases in exports to certain countries, but increases in others.
Overall, high levels of oilseed production and consumption, as well as an increase in stocks, are expected, although some factors may impact the market situation.
Key Points:
• Significant growth in sunflower meal exports from the European Union is forecasted due to increased production and higher demand.
• Sunflower meal production in Ukraine will decrease, but Ukraine will still remain the world's largest exporter.
• Russia is expected to see an increase in domestic consumption of sunflower meal and oil.
• Export of sunflower oil from Turkey will decrease, while domestic demand will rise.
• A decrease in prices for soybeans, vegetable, and palm oils is forecasted, as well as a reduction in exports to some countries.
Overall, the forecast for oilseeds anticipates growth in production, consumption, and stocks, which may impact the market situation in the near future. We will monitor further developments in this area.
