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Barley prices in some of Australia's largest export zones jumped 10% after China decided last week to lift high anti-dumping tariffs first introduced in 2020.
China's Ministry of Commerce said on Friday that anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley will be lifted on Saturday, about three years after 80.5% tariffs first cut once A$1.5 billion in annual trade. ($985 million).
Spot prices for feed barley in the Albany and Kwinana port areas of Western Australia reached A$330 a metric ton on Monday, compared with A$300 on Friday, according to Cargill Pricing Hub data.
Albany and Kwinana exported roughly a quarter of all Australian grain in fiscal 2022.
According to Trent Smoker, general manager of the Clear Grain Exchange, the increase is likely due to buyers setting a surcharge traditionally paid in China for Australian barley.
“The Chinese market has been paying more than other destinations, we have heard about 30 to 40 AUD and now we are seeing a significant increase in prices,” Smoker said.
The Clear Grain Exchange said it sold 115,000 tons of barley on Friday, more than three times the previous week's total. Feed barley prices in the two port areas reached A$335 on Monday.
Feed barley is the price standard in the market. China imports barley both for livestock feed and for brewing malt, with brewing barley often priced at a premium.
Over the past three years, Chinese buyers have turned to Canada, France and Argentina to replace Australian barley, while Australian sellers have switched exports to markets in the Middle East.
New contracts from Chinese buyers are likely to be delayed until November, when Australian barley is ripe and production and next crop yields become clearer, according to a market coverage analyst at a Chinese securities firm who declined to be named because for company rules.
Once orders start, there should be no problem reopening trade, according to Pat O'Shannassi, CEO of Grain Trade Australia, despite Western Australia's history of limited port capacity.
“Now everything is green,” he said. “We had bandwidth issues, but they have lessened over time. I don't think there are any issues right now that could stop trading."
