俄羅斯聯邦的國內小麥市場已經開始增長 - Rusagrotrans

“Prices on the domestic market are rising again, especially in Siberia, where demand from Kazakhstan is growing,” analysts say.

Prices for wheat 4th grade 12.5% protein EXW elevator:

in the South - strengthened to 11,400–11,700 rubles per ton without VAT (+150 rubles),
in the Center - increased to 9,000–9,400 rubles per ton (+100 rubles),
in the Volga region (Saratov, Volgograd) - about 9,500–10,200 rubles per ton remained.
In Siberia, prices rose to 8,800–9,800 rubles per ton without VAT (+950 rubles), mainly due to a recovery in demand from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and farmers' expectations for the resumption of intervention grain purchases for the state fund.

On April 10, Kazakhstan introduced a ban on the import of wheat into the republic by road. Imports are allowed only by rail, the share of which in total deliveries to the republic is about a third.

Export and prices
Rusagrotrans increased the forecast for wheat exports in April 2023, including the EAEU countries, from 4.64 million tons to 4.75 million tons, which is slightly lower than in March, when 4.8 million tons were exported. By April 21, Russia exported about 3.2 million tons of wheat.

Prices for wheat (4th class, 12.5% protein) in deep-sea ports fell to 13,100-13,300 rubles per ton without VAT (-300 rubles compared to the previous week). Purchasing activity has dwindled as exporters deal with ongoing contracts. At low water, prices remained around 12,100–12,200 rubles per ton. Last year, analysts recall, prices were 17,750 rubles for high water and 16,000 rubles per ton for small water.

Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for May delivery remained at $275 per tonne FOB. At the same time, the demand price was noticeably lower - about $268 per ton for the old crop and $265 per ton for the new one. American wheat fell by the end of the week to $282 per ton (-$2), French - to $281 per ton (-$2).

“The exchange market for wheat was declining after rising at the beginning of the week under the influence of the resumption of inspections of ships with Ukrainian grain after a two-day break,” analysts say.

Jordan bought 50 thousand tons of wheat (probably Bulgarian) for delivery from October 16 to October 31 for $303 CNF (in terms of FOB Novorossiysk - about $268 per ton). Russian wheat was offered at $309 per ton CNF, or about $275 per ton FOB. The next tender is scheduled for May 2.

Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria agreed on the transit of Ukrainian grain, taking into account the establishment of strict control procedures for its implementation, but imports are closed. The EU is preparing a €100 million assistance package for five countries that are planning or have already banned the import of Ukrainian wheat (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria) to encourage them to remove or ease restrictions. Wheat imports to the EU, judging by the current pace in the current agricultural season, can reach a record figure comparable to the 2002/03 season (10.5 million tons), and corn - reach 26 million tons (the previous record was in the 2018/19 season - 23, 6 million tons).

The French consulting company Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for soft wheat harvest in the EU in 2023/24 by 0.6 million tons to 128.9 million tons (125.2 million tons in 2022/23) due to drought in Spain. The forecast for the export of soft wheat in 2022/23 is reduced by 0.6 million tons, to 29.4 million tons, in 2023/24 it is increased by 0.4 million tons, to 30.7 million tons.

In the US, as of April 16, the share of winter wheat in good and excellent condition remained at 27%, in line with market expectations (30% last year). Sowing of spring wheat and corn was slower than the market expected, while soybean sowing started more actively than expected. Negative temperatures in the northern states of the United States can damage winter wheat crops and slow down spring sowing, Rusagrotrans analysts say.

As of April 10, the share of soft wheat in good and excellent condition in France rose to 94% against 93% a week ago. Last year, only 92% of crops were such.