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Due to unusually severe frosts that occurred in early May, several regions of Russia suffered losses due to damage to agricultural crops. According to preliminary data from the analytical center "SovEcon", around 3.9 million tons of wheat, valued at almost 45 billion rubles, were affected.
After receiving more detailed information from agricultural producers and regional authorities, "SovEcon" revised its wheat harvest forecast for Russia, lowering it from 89.6 million tons to 85.7 million tons.
This revision also reflects a decrease in wheat sown areas by 0.3 million hectares, to 29.2 million hectares, and a reduction in the yield forecast from 3.03 tons per hectare to 2.93 tons per hectare. Forecasts for different regions were also adjusted. Forecasts for the Central region were decreased by 2 million tons, 1.2 million tons in the South, and 0.7 million tons in the Volga region. SovEcon analysts note that the Ministry of Agriculture's data on the need to replant 0.5 million hectares due to frosts are significantly undervalued, and the actual number might reach 1 million hectares.
Such challenging weather conditions for wheat cultivation are also observed in other countries, including France and Germany, where heavy rains continue. In these conditions, analysts expect further growth in global wheat prices. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has also lowered its grain harvest forecast due to frosts and dry weather, causing damage to the harvest. The new estimate for the total grain harvest is 135 million tons, 7 million tons less than the previous forecast, including 86 million tons of wheat, which is 5 million tons less.
Currently, a state of emergency has been declared in several regions of Russia, including the Tambov, Lipetsk, Voronezh, and Oryol regions. In the Volgograd region, it is in effect in 32 districts. According to Vladimir Petrichenko, the CEO of the analytical company "ProZerno," the introduction of a state of emergency is also likely in the Saratov region and the Ural Federal District, where frosts are expected. Petrichenko noted that frosts are expected at night and in the following nights, so the process is not yet over, and the scale and results are not yet clear.
According to experts, frosts may destroy around 1 million hectares of winter crops, considering both recent frosts and the ones that occurred in autumn, winter, and spring. Additionally, losses of summer crops due to frosts may amount to at least 500 thousand hectares, according to Petrichenko. This issue affects spring wheat, barley, legumes, and oilseed crops. Petrichenko highlighted that weather conditions have already affected the price of Russian wheat, which has started to rise. However, frosts are not the only factor affecting price growth. "The weather situation in the market is already showing its impact and will continue to do so as more information comes in," Petrichenko added.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Orenburg region, losses from frosts affected 140 thousand hectares of sown areas, while another 500 thousand hectares were damaged. Federal Deputy Minister of Agriculture Andrey Razin reported these figures during a meeting with the regions on May 14. He noted that mainly winter wheat crops were affected. "It is necessary to help those agricultural producers who have suffered the most damage. We have already developed a replanting plan. However, the main task is to preserve the structure of sown areas," Razin emphasized.
The total sown area for this year is expected to be 84.5 million hectares, which is 300 thousand hectares more than last year. Winter crops cover 20 million hectares, and according to the Ministry of Agriculture's estimates, 95% of these crops are in good condition.
