The sugar beet harvest in Russia is under threat due to bad weather and weakened demand, says the Minister of Agriculture.

Last week, prices remained stable, with average demand. General data on sugar beet planting areas showed an increase of 56.20 thousand hectares compared to the previous year, which offset the bad news about frosts and resowing. However, risks for the crop still remain. The weather in the Southern Federal District remains hot, with no rain expected in the coming days.

The new Minister of Agriculture, Oksana Lut, stated that 45.5 million tons of sugar beets are planned to be harvested in the 2024/25 season. In our opinion, this is already close to the lower limit of possible scenarios. With the collection of 45.5 million tons of sugar beets, accounting for losses of about 7%, there will be around 42.3 million tons left for processing, which, with a typical yield of about 13%, will result in approximately 5.5 million tons of sugar from beets and around 200 thousand tons from molasses. In total - 5.7 million tons.

After the improvement of weather conditions, the results of our climatic model show the most likely scenario with a production of about 6.3 million tons of sugar in the next season in Russia (including production from syrup and molasses). However, it is only the beginning of June, and we will have to observe the weather in the summer and autumn, as it may significantly affect the sugar beet harvest and seasonal production.

The calculated cost of white sugar produced from raw sugar is $896.29 per ton ($79.54 per kilogram).

As of June 6, 2024, the cost of sugar produced from imported raw sugar is as follows:

• In Uzbekistan - $729.6 per ton ($56.32 per kilogram in Krasnodar including delivery) excluding VAT and duties;
• In Kazakhstan - $662.8 per ton ($55.00 per kilogram in Krasnodar including delivery) excluding VAT and duties.

According to Sugar.ru portal's estimation, the pace of Belarusian sugar imports to Russia decreased by 1.3 thousand tons in the first 6 days of June compared to previous months. 13.9 thousand tons were imported throughout May, and 18.4 thousand tons in April.

Rail shipments of sugar are at the level of statistical error, with data available only for two railcars totaling 130 tons. In comparison:

• In May - 2.2 thousand tons;
• In April - 27.8 thousand tons.

In the first few days of June, the railway transit of Belarusian sugar to countries in Central Asia and Mongolia amounted to 2.2 thousand tons.

No Russian sugar beets raw material exports were made in June.

In the first few days of June, 15.5 thousand tons of sugar raw material were shipped through Russian and Georgian ports.