The decrease in wheat prices in the USA following the harvest forecast and record soybean production has caused instability in the market.

On the first day of the week, August 12, 2024, the wheat market saw mixed dynamics. September quotes for soft winter wheat on the Chicago Commodity Exchange CBOT dropped to $197.22 per ton, September hard winter wheat futures on the Kansas City KCBT fell to $201.44 per ton, while September hard spring wheat futures on MGEХ in Minneapolis rose to $217.61 per ton.

Trading in wheat in September ended with different trends: wheat in Chicago on CBOT and in Kansas City decreased by 5¾ cents, while wheat in Minneapolis increased by 2½ cents.

The USDA report dated August 12 indicated a decrease in wheat production in the United States. A smaller crop of spring wheat was the main reason for the reduction. However, winter wheat production increased compared to the previous month. The USDA's forecast predicts American wheat production at 53.93 million tons in the current season, higher than the previous year's figures (49.31 million tons) and the five-year average (48.22 million tons). Exports are expected to reach 22.45 million tons (compared to 19.24 million tons last season).

The NASS Crop Progress weekly report showed that as of August 11, 93% of the winter wheat harvest was completed, which is 2% higher than the five-year average. The spring wheat harvest is gaining momentum and was 18% completed by Sunday, which is 3% below the norm. The condition rating decreased by 2% to 72%.

Data on wheat exports showed that during the week ending on August 8, 649,199 tons of wheat were shipped, which is twice as much as during the same week last year. GASC in Egypt purchased only 280,000 tons of wheat at its tender on Monday, including 180,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat and 100,000 tons of Bulgarian wheat.

The decline in wheat prices was offset by news of poor harvests in France and other European countries. It is expected that soft wheat harvest in France in 2024 will be 25% lower than last year due to heavy rains.

Corn futures rose on Monday as the USDA predicted a larger crop compared to the July estimate but assessed the planted area lower than expected.

Global new corn crop stocks decreased by 1.4 million tons to 310.17 million tons, mainly due to U.S. data. Corn production from the old crop in Argentina decreased by 2 million tons to 50 million tons, while production level in Brazil remained at 122 million tons.

The USDA reported the sale of 165,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in 2024/25. Export inspections data showed that during the week ending on August 8, inspections were conducted for 974,667 tons of corn, significantly higher than during the same week last year.

Soybean prices on the Chicago exchange sharply decreased on Monday to the lowest level since September 2020 after the USDA released data indicating a record soybean production forecast.

In its monthly report, the USDA highlighted bankrupted world demand and supply for agricultural products, projecting a record soybean crop of 4.589 billion bushels, surpassing analysts' expectations and leading to significant losses.

Soybean production in Argentina for the 2023/24 season decreased by 0.5 million tons to 49 million tons, while remaining at 153 million tons for Brazil. Total South American new soybean crop stocks increased by 6.5 million tons to 134.3 million tons, mainly due to the U.S.

The USDA reported the announcement of export sales of 300,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, including 100,000 tons of old crop and 200,000 tons of new crop.

September wheat futures on the Chicago CBOT on Monday dropped by 5-3/4 cents to $5.36-3/4 per bushel, September CBOT corn futures rose by 6-1/2 cents to $3.83-1/4 per bushel, while November soybean futures fell by 16-1/2 cents to $9.86 per bushel.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT), the September and November contract quotes at the close of trading were:

• soft red winter wheat (September 2024) - €214.50 per ton ($234.15);
• corn (November 2024) - €202.75 per ton ($221.32);
• sunflower (SAFEX exchange, August 2024) - 8800.00 zar/t (42160 rub/t);
• sunflower oil (02.08.2024 Rotterdam, FOB bulk) - $1080.00 per ton (95030 rub/t).

On Friday, the French Ministry of Agriculture lowered its estimate for soft wheat production in the country in 2024, now expecting the harvest volume to be 25% below last year's.

The French wheat market fell on Friday. At the end of the trading day, September quotes for milling wheat on the Paris MATIF Exchange dropped to €214.50 per ton ($234.15). November corn quotes fell to €202.75 per ton ($221.32).

On the Paris Exchange (MATIF), the September and November contract quotes at the close of trading were:

• soft red winter wheat (September 2024) - €234.15 per ton (20600 rub/t);
• corn (November 2024) - €221.32 per ton (19470 rub/t);
• sunflower (SAFEX exchange, August 2024) - 8800.00 zar/t (42160 rub/t);
• sunflower oil (02.08.2024 Rotterdam, FOB bulk) - $1080.00 per ton (95030 rub/t).

As of August 12, 2024, currency exchange rates are:
87.9920 rubles for 1 US Dollar
95.1844 rubles for 1 Euro
64.0268 rubles for 1 Canadian Dollar
47.9069 rubles for 10 South African Rand