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Last week, the price of corn in the South increased by 835 rubles, reaching 16,583 rubles per ton (EXW, European part of Russia, including VAT). In the Chernozem region, there was a growth of 750 rubles, reaching 15,210 rubles per ton, and in the Center, prices rose by 565 rubles, reaching 14,917 rubles per ton. These data were provided by the analytical company "ProZerno". This increase became the highest on the Russian grain market last week, according to Interfax. Earlier, the general director of "ProZerno," Vladimir Petrichenko, noted in an interview for "Agroinvestor" that corn is facing serious production difficulties this year compared to other types of grains. It is expected that the corn harvest will be only 11.9 million tons (according to Rosstat data for 2020, the harvest was 16.6 million tons).
From October 2, the export duty on corn increased by 9.5 times, from 292.7 rubles per ton to 2,786 rubles per ton, with an indicative price of $225 per ton. At the same time, Russian corn is sold on the domestic market for no more than $190 per ton (FOB). Ukrainian corn costs $210 per ton, American - $207 per ton, Argentinean - $197 per ton. This data was reported in the Telegram channel "ProZerno".
The director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Conditions (IKAR), Dmitry Rylko, notes that in the South, corn prices have stopped rising due to the increase in the export duty. He explains that there is a shortage of corn in the market, so producers decided to maintain a stable price. In the Center, Rylko states that exporters sharply reduced their purchase prices, but agricultural producers are still holding back, leading to a reduction in contracting for shipments to external markets. Buyers from northern Iran, who are among the leading importers of Russian wheat, have not yet raised prices due to the increase in the Russian duty. Rylko believes that the further price dynamics will depend on the size of the export duty. Many expect it to be reduced after the sharp increase, and in this case, a certain number of export contracts may resume.
Independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut predicts a corn harvest of around 12 million tons. He adds that with this level of exports, it will not be significant. According to Korbut, the 9.5-fold increase in the export duty on corn is unjustified. The indicative price for Russia is higher than both the world market and neighboring countries. Therefore, increasing the duty is, in his opinion, an administrative decision to lower prices. He also notes that in conditions of a reduced harvest, internal corn prices will rise, and there are no grounds to expect them to decrease. "Fundamental factors indicate that the price will remain high," Korbut concluded.
At the end of last week, Rylko noted that there might be restrictions on corn exports due to the reduced harvest. He shared this information during the "Agroinvestor: PRO Plant Growing" conference. It is reported that with an expected harvest of 11.8 million tons, exports will still be carried out, with a volume of around 1.5-2.5 million tons. According to SovEcon's estimates, the harvest will be 11.9 million tons, while Rusagrotrans predicts 12.4 million tons. According to Rusagrotrans, corn exports will amount to 2.6 million tons, significantly less than last year (7.34 million tons).
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