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The "SovEcon" research showed that wheat stocks as of July 1, 2024 reached 20.3 million tons, which is 21% higher than last year's record. This new record was set thanks to the early harvest.
Due to unpredictable weather conditions in the past few months, the harvest started much earlier than usual. By the beginning of July, around 6.9 million tons of wheat were harvested in Russia, compared to 0.2 million tons last year.
Excluding the new harvest, Russian wheat stocks turned out to be lower than last year's values. According to Rosstat, wheat stocks, excluding the new harvest, amounted to 13.4 million tons, compared to 16.6 million tons last year. These data do not include figures from small enterprises.
The "SovEcon" forecast for wheat production in the new season is 84.7 million tons, which is lower than 92.8 million tons last year and the average of the past five years - 86.7 million tons.
An excess of wheat supply at the beginning of the new season led to a decrease in prices. From June to July, wheat prices at deep-water ports in Russia fell by 3,350 rubles to 14,750 rubles.
In recent weeks, demand for wheat has returned, leading to price increases in the south. By the beginning of August, quotes rose by 1,000 rubles to 15,750 rubles.
Analysts doubt the sustainability of price growth, as the wheat supply will remain at historically high levels, and agricultural producers will be hindered by a difficult financial situation and high interest rates.
